000 AXNT20 KNHC 141023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant low pressure will move off the coast of Texas on Sun night. The front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds are expected in the northwestern Gulf by early Monday to the west of the low pressure and behind the front. Seas will increase to 15 ft with strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish across the region by Mon night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone, Africa near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N35W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the axis west of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features section for details. A stationary front enters the Gulf through the Apalachee bay near 30N84W and extends SW to 23N92W. SE of the front, a 1010 mb surface low is centered near 26N88W, with trough extending from 28N83W to the low to 24N89W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh winds north of the front, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. The stationary front will weaken through tonight. A strong cold front with associated low pressure will move off the coast of Texas tonight, with gale force northerly winds expected over the northwestern Gulf on Monday behind the front. The next cold front will enter the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds are likely to precede and follow this front across the basin, with gale-force winds possible off Veracruz Thu. On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico through early next week. These winds could reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the eastern and western parts of the basin, with fresh to strong trades south of Hispaniola to Colombia and western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the northwest Caribbean. High pressure north of the area is allowing for dry conditions to prevail, aside from scattered fast-moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. By that time, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales possible Wed night/early Thu. SE winds will increase in the Gulf of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 70W, a stationary front extends from 32N77W to 29N81W. Scattered showers are noted south of the front moving off the Florida coast, north of 29N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds off the coast of northeast Florida south of the front are starting to increase to moderate to fresh with seas building to 7 ft. To the east, a 1025 mb surface high is centered near 32N53W and broad ridging dominates across most of the Atlantic basin. Moderate to fresh E winds are evident south of 22N, to the south of the ridge. Seas in open waters are mostly 5-10 ft. For the forecast, the front will lift north of the area Sun night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W to Vero Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the Bahamas and east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through the Gulf of Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W Atlantic. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of the week. $$ ERA