000 AXNT20 KNHC 140557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant low pressure will move off the coast of Texas late Sun night. This front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night through Mon to the west of the low pressure and behind the front. Winds will reach near 40 kt by Mon within 120 nm of the Texas coast and coast of Mexico, with seas reaching near 17 ft off Tampico by Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the region on Tue. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone, Africa near 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 02N35W to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the axis west of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features section for details. A stationary front enters the Gulf through the Apalachee bay near 30N84W and extends SW to 21N92W. A 1008 mb low is along this boundary centered near 27N87W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong NE to N winds over the northwest Gulf, where seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere east of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident east of the frontal boundary from the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida Big Bend. The front will weaken through Sun night. A strong cold front with attendant low pressure will move off the coast of Texas on Sun night. The front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night through Monday to the west of the low pressure and behind the front. Winds and seas will diminish across the region on Tue. The next cold front will enter the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds are likely to precede and follow this front across the basin, with gale-force winds possible off Veracruz Thu. On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the eastern and western parts of the basin, with fresh to strong trades south of Hispanola to Colombia and western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the northwest Caribbean. High pressure north of the area is allowing for dry conditions to prevail, aside from isolated fast-moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. By that time, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales possible Wed night. SE winds will increase in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front moves through the area. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W, a stationary front extends from 32N76W to near Jacksonville, Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are noted south of the front moving off the Florida coast, north of Melbourne, FL. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds off the coast of northeast Florida south of the front are starting to increase to moderate to fresh with seas building to 7 ft. Farther east, a 1026 mb surface high pressure center is near 27N31W and broad ridging dominates across most of the Atlantic basin. Moderate to fresh E winds are evident south of 22N, to the south of the ridge. Seas in open waters are mostly 5-10 ft. For the forecast, the front will lift north of the area Sun night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W to Vero Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the Bahamas and east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through the Gulf of Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W Atlantic. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week. $$ Mora