000 AXNT20 KNHC 132303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant low pressure will move off the coast of Texas late Sun night. This front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night through Mon to the west of the low pressure and behind the front. Winds will reach near 40 kt by Mon within 120 nm of the Texas coast and coast of Mexico, with seas reaching near 17 ft off Tampico by Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the region on Tue. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the the Sierra Leone/Liberia border and continues to 03N1820W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the axis west of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features section for details. A stationary front extends from Panama City, Florida to 1010 mb low pressure near 26N90W to the far southwest Gulf near 19N95W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong NW to N winds over the northwest Gulf, where seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of the front, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted east of the front. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are evident within 180 nm east of the frontal boundary, primarily off the coast of Yucatan, and over the northeast Gulf. This front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night through Monday to the west of the low pressure and behind the front. A light wintry mix of precipitation could reach the coastline of Texas and western Louisiana late Sun night into Mon. Winds and seas will diminish across the region on Tue. The next cold front will enter the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds are likely to precede and follow this front across the basin, with gale force winds possible off Veracruz Thu. On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent buoy and ship observations along with earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with fresh to strong trade winds south Hispaniola and off northeast Colombia. Moderate to fresh SE winds were evident over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the northwest Caribbean. Grand Cayman radar shows a few showers moving to the N-NW into the Isle of Youth and western Cuba. A line of thunderstorms off the coast of Yucatan is moving eastward toward the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Thu. By the middle of next week, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales possible Wed night. SE winds will increase in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front moves through the Gulf of Mexico. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W, a stationary front extends from 32N78W to near Jacksonville, Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are noted south of the front, moving in a line from near Fort Pierce, Florida to 32N75W. A surface ridge extends along roughly 26N/27N through the northern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds off the coast of northeast Florida south of the front are starting to increase to moderate to fresh with seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh E winds are also evident south of 22N, to the south of the ridge. Seas in open waters are mostly 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the front will lift north of the area Sun night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W to Vero Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the Bahamas and east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through the Gulf of Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W Atlantic. Farther east, broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N, centered on 1027 mb high pressure near 27N32W and 1025 mb high pressure near 26N52W, with a weak front in between the two high pressure areas. Fresh trades and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted south of 20N. Fresh NE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted north of 20N east of 35W, and gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 8 ft seas noted elsewhere over North Atlantic waters south of 32N. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week. $$ Christensen