000 AXNT20 KNHC 121731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 07N12W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the ITCZ from 01N-03N between 23W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving slowly southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, and currently extends from Panama City, Florida to near Poza Rica, Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the front. South and east of the front, light to moderate SE winds prevail. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front through tonight, with building seas to 10 or 11 ft. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are occurring in association with the frontal boundary. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. Cold air has penetrated into the Sierra Madre Mountains as depicted by rather uniform stratus cloud cover. A stationary front is analyzed in that region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also developing ahead of the front in a SE moist flow. The cold front will reach from Tallahassee, Florida to the Bay of Campeche tonight, then stall and weaken from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat night. A weak low may develop later today along the frontal boundary. By Sun night, low pressure is forecast to develop near Brownsville, Texas dragging a new and strong cold front across the western Gulf. The low will move towards SE Louisiana on Mon. Gale force winds are expected behind the front, forecast to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Tue. Strong high pressure will build southward across Texas and the western Gulf in the wake of the front. On a side note, the GFS model indicates strong westerly winds E of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data provided observations of near-gale force winds near the northern coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean, where seas are in the 7-11 ft range. Elsewhere, trade winds are moderate to fresh. Dry air in the mid to upper-levels exists across much of the region, which is supporting generally fair weather. However, as is typical, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is currently moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some of these patches of moisture are now affecting Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands producing scattered to numerous showers as noted by the San Juan Doppler radar. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue night. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are possible in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat morning. Large north swell will affect the tropical N Atlantic waters through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Generally quiet weather prevails across the western Atlantic under the influence of a ridge. Farther east, a cold front enters the forecast region near 31N34W and extends to 28N46W. The most recent scatterometer pass shows very clear the wind shift associated with the front. A narrow line of showers is occurring along the front. Otherwise, a ridge, anchored on a 1025 mb high pressure located near 28N25W, dominates the rest of the basin. Fresh to locally strong trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. Long period northerly swell is propagating across much of the waters E of 60W, producing seas of 9 to 13 ft N of 15N and E of 50W. To the south and west of this area of swell, seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range. A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night. The front will stall off the Georgia and N Florida coast on Sun then lift north of the area Sun night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Sun night. A weak cold front will move off Florida on Tue. $$ GR