000 AXNT20 KNHC 112310 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force at night off the coast of Colombia during the next few days. These strong winds are associated with a combination of high pressure ridging across the subtropics and low pressure over Colombia. Seas are expected to build to 11 ft when the winds are at their strongest. Please refer to the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N21W to 00N32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 01N-04N between 19W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is slowly moving southeastward across the western Gulf of Mexico, and currently extends from southeastern Louisiana to north-central Mexico. Behind the front, fresh to strong northeasterly winds and scattered showers are widespread. South and east of the front, weather conditions are mostly fair and winds are light to moderate out of the southeast or south. The cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward and extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico, Fri morning, from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Fri night and from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat night. Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for details on ongoing gales off the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data from earlier today revealed fresh to strong trades continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, where seas are in the 7-11 ft. range. Elsewhere, trade winds are moderate to fresh. Dry air in the mid- and upper-levels exists across much of the region, which is supporting generally fair weather. However, as is typical, there are a few patches of low-level clouds and embedded showers moving within the trade wind flow. Surface ridging N of the area will maintain the fresh to strong trade winds over the central and southwest Caribbean through Mon night. Gale force winds will continue to pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight, with near gale conditions prevailing through Sat. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will prevail through Sat morning. Otherwise, NE swell will affect the tropical N Atlantic waters through the middle of next week with building seas to 10 ft there. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Generally quiet weather prevails across the western Atlantic, with most of the active weather occurring north of the region near and north of the Carolina coast. Farther east, a cold front enters the area near 32N43W and extends to 29N51W with a surface trough extending from there to 29N62W. A narrow line of showers is occurring along the front. Otherwise, high pressure ridging dominates the rest of the basin, causing fair weather and moderate to fresh trades. Swell generated from a strong low pressure system east of the Canadian Maritimes has spread south to areas E of 60W and N of 20N. This is causing seas of 8 to 17 ft. To the south and west of this area of swell, seas average 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail across the region through Sat night, when a weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast. The front will stall over the NW forecast waters Sun and lift N of the area Mon. Surface ridging will continue to be the dominant feature afterward, supporting fresh to strong winds at night between Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos. $$ Cangialosi