000 AXNT20 KNHC 111758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 01200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: NE-to-E gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 9 ft to 11 ft are present in the coastal waters off Colombia from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds will slow down to less than gale-force later this morning, then return to gale- force tonight. Winds will subside again Fri morning, but near gale conditions will continue to pulse through the weekend. Please refer to the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 04N23W to 00N30W, then continues along the equator to around 35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the ITCZ from 02S-07N between 19W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front entered the Gulf this morning stretching from the Louisiana coast near 30N93W to the southern tip of the Texas coastline. Fresh NE winds are behind the cold front along with scattered moderate convection within 50 nm of the boundary. East of the front, winds are generally moderate to fresh out of the SE. Areas of fog are beginning to dissipate along the northern Gulf coast, however, fog remains prevalent along the Florida coastline east of Pensacola to the Apalachee Bay. Foggy conditions will further decrease this afternoon. Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail with generally moderate SE winds. The cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico Fri morning, from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Fri night and from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat night. Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf tonight through Sat night. Otherwise, dense fog is expected to prevail along the northern and eastern Gulf through this evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for details on ongoing gales off the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data from this morning revealed fresh to strong trades continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, elsewhere, trade winds are moderate to fresh. Deep layer dry air is over most of the basin, which supports mostly clear skies and fair weather, with the exception of the region east of the Yucatan Peninsula where showers and thunderstorms are noted. Seas range from 7-11 ft in the central Caribbean. Surface ridging N of the area extending to the northern Caribbean will maintain the fresh to strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Mon night. Gale force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight, with near gale conditions prevailing through Sat. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong this evening and prevail through Sat morning. Otherwise, NE swell will affect the tropical N Atlantic waters tonight through the middle of next week with building seas to 10 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 1500 UTC: a cold front emerged off the southeast coast of the U.S. allowing for a line of showers and thunderstorms about 120 nm offshore of the NE Florida coast. Fog is also occurring off the U.S. coast north of Jacksonville beach, FL. Further east, a pair of cold fronts are draped over the northernmost parts of the area. The first is noted from 32N49W to 29N55W, then extends westward to 30N66W. To the east, the second cold front extends from 32N20W to 29N29W where it begins to dissipate and stretches to 27N44W. No significant precipitation is associated with these fronts. High pressure ridging dominates the rest of the basin, allowing for moderate to fresh trades. Swell generated from strong low pressure east of the Canadian Maritimes has spread S to areas E of 60W and N of 20N. This is causing seas of 8 to 17 ft. To the S and W of this area of swell, seas average 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail across the region through Sat night, when a weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast. The front will stall over the NW forecast waters Sun and lift N of the area Mon. Surface ridging will continue to be the dominant feature afterward, supporting fresh to strong winds at night between Hispaniola, and Turks and Caicos. $$ Mora