000 AXNT20 KNHC 101813 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE-E winds continue over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 11ft near Colombia. Gale force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night, with near gale conditions prevailing into Sun night. Please, refer to the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N between 36W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches from near Apalachicola, Florida along the northern Gulf coast to 29N94W. Convection previously associated with this weakening boundary has dissipated. Fog prevails about 60 nm off the coast of the U.S. throughout the northern Gulf waters and west of the Florida peninsula due to very moist air over cooler waters. Winds are generally gentle to moderate out of the east, with seas of 2 to 4 ft. The stationary front is expected to lift N today while dissipating. Fog will continue to be possible into the late week. A cold front will move off the coast Thu, then reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche early Fri, where it will stall through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf early Fri through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data from this morning revealed fresh to strong trades continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Clusters of isolated showers and thunderstorms are embedded in the trade wind flow. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft across the basin, with swell heights increasing near the waters adjacent to Colombia. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean into the start of next week. Gale force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night, with near gale conditions prevailing into Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong at night Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 1500 UTC: The previous stationary front extending from the northeast Florida coast near St. Augustine to 32N72W is now dissipating. Winds in the western Atlantic are gentle to moderate. Two high pressure centers, a 1025 mb high centered near 31N51W and a 1022 mb high centered near 27N24W, allow for gentle to moderate trades to prevail across most of the basin. A cold front exists between the highs, extending from 32N30W to 27N43W where it becomes stationary and continues west to 27N54W. Winds are fresh from the south ahead of the front and north of 28N. Seas behind the boundary range from 9-18 ft, reaching 21 ft north of the area. The stationary front extending in the western Atlantic will lift N of the area as a warm front tonight. Dense fog is forecast to prevail over NE Florida adjacent waters near the frontal boundary through noon today. Return flow will establish across the region on Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Sat evening. Surface ridge extending across the region will continue to support fresh to strong winds at night between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos, and the approaches of the Windward Passage through Sat. $$ Mora