000 AXNT20 KNHC 091205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean into the weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia early this morning, tonight, and again Wed night. Near gale- force winds are also expected Thu night. Seas will build to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 17W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 00N to 08N between 30W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A previously stalled front is now lifting north as a warm front from N of Tampa Bay to the mouth of the Mississippi River, then along the Louisiana coast. A 1016 mb low pressure has formed along the boundary near 29N90W. N of the warm front and east of the low pressure, scattered moderate convection has developed from offshore SE Louisiana to the coast of the Florida Panhandle. Winds to the east of a surface trough about 120 nm W of the Yucatan Peninsula, otherwise gentle to moderate winds prevail over the basin. Areas of dense fog have formed along the continental shelf waters off the Florida and Texas coasts. The low and warm front will lift N of the area today. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northern Gulf through mid week. Looking ahead, another front will move off the Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Fri evening, where it will stall through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf Fri into Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trades continue to dominate the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas of 8 to 10 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft are observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. Dry conditions prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat night. Gales will pulse nightly through Wed night off the coast of Colombia, with near gale conditions prevailing the rest of the week. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras for the latter half of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is located from 32N50W to 28N65W. It then becomes stationary to the west and continues to near Melbourne, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is located N of the boundary between Florida and 75W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are occurring N of the front with generally gentle to moderate E to SE winds to the south. High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 29N37W dominates much of the rest of the basin, producing moderate to fresh tradewinds across the tropics south of 23N. Seas across the tradewind belt are running 7 to 9 ft in north swell. The front will lift north as a warm front this morning, then move out of the area by this evening. The front will transition back to a cold front tonight N of the area, and its tail will move across the northern waters Wed. Strong high pressure northeast of the area will support fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos as well as in the approaches of the Windward Passage into Fri. $$ KONARIK