000 AXNT20 KNHC 082316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Feb 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Near gale- force winds are also expected Wed night. Seas will build to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 05.5N10W to 03.5N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N18W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N- 05.5N between 00W-33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ between 33W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across south Florida along 26.5N to 25N85W then transitions to a warm front and extends to the upper Texas coast. Convection previously associated with this front has generally diminished, although widely scattered light showers persist across the Central Gulf. North of the frontal boundary, moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds prevail between 85W and 90W, while gentle to moderate SE winds prevail south of the front. The stationary front is forecast to lift N as a warm front and move north of the area late tonight. Moist southerly flow may allow for areas of dense fog to develop across the cooler shelf waters across the northwest and north central Gulf coastal waters through mid week. Looking ahead, another front will move off the Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by late Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Late morning scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong E trades dominating the entire basin, with the exception of the northwest Caribbean, where E to SE winds are moderate to fresh. Seas of 8 to 11 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft are observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. Dry conditions prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean into Fri night. Near gale force winds are expected off the coast of Colombia nightly through the forecast period, except tonight where gale conditions are forecast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N62W to the extreme NW Bahamas, then stalls to near Palm Beach Florida. A band of thunderstorms stretches along the frontal boundary between Palm Beach and 77W, with scattered showers along and north of the front across interior south central Florida. South of the front, moderate E to SE winds are occurring, with fresh NE winds north the front. High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 29N32W dominates much of the rest of the basin, producing moderate tradewinds across the tropics south of 23N. Seas across the tradewind belt are running 7 to 9 ft in north swell. The entire front has begun to stall today, and will lift north as a warm front tonight, and out of the region Tue. The next cold front may not move off the SE U.S. coast until Thu or Fri. $$ Stripling