000 AXNT20 KNHC 052249 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Feb 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building across the basin combined with lower pressure over South America will produce gale force winds tonight with seas 10 to 12 ft. These conditions will pulse every night through the weekend, with seas ranging between 8 to 11 ft. Please refer to the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 07N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 200 nm of both boundaries between 20W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf waters, stretching from the western Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to South Texas near 27N97W. A pre-frontal trough stretches across the northeast Gulf from 30N84W to 26N87W. Showers are noted along and north of the front and trough mainly N of 26N. Moderate to fresh N winds are behind the front, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail ahead of the front. To the SW, a 1008 mb low is located in the Bay of Campeche near 22N97W, with a surface trough stretching from 26N97W to 19N95W. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft across the basin. The cold front will stall across the northern Gulf this evening. The front will lift north tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will move across the western Gulf Sat, before stalling from southwest Florida to the north central Yucatan Peninsula by Sun night. Looking ahead, the front will lift north and dissipate early next week. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Relatively dry conditions dominate the basin. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the central Caribbean with the strongest winds north of Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail. Seas are 3 ft in the NW Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 6-10 ft in the south-central portion of the basin. High pressure building north of the Caribbean will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean into mid week. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Sat night off the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front stretches across the central Atlantic from 31N53W to north of Hispaniola near 20N70W. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 26N55W to 21N55W. A 1024 mb surface high is west of the front centered near 29N62W. High pressure extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high near 35N34W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted in the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds are in the central Atlantic with strong to near gale-force winds in the eastern Atlantic near the Canary Islands. Seas range 3-6 ft in the western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic. The stationary front will dissipate by tonight. A weak cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight then stall and lift north Sat. Southerly winds increase Sat night and early Sun off northeast Florida ahead of another cold front expected to move off the coast Sun morning. That front will shift east and stall from Bermuda to South Florida by Mon morning, then lift north and dissipate through mid week. $$ ERA