000 AXNT20 KNHC 051015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Feb 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building into the basin combined with lower pressure over South America is producing a strong pressure gradient and allowing gale force winds early this morning offshore Colombia, along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Wind will subside a bit later this morning to below gale force, but my increase again to 35 kt Sat evening and night. Please refer to the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 02N30W, and 02N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 16W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted N of the ITCZ and S of 10N. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered E of the basin is bringing southerly winds to the basin along with generally dry conditions. Winds are moderate in the eastern Gulf and fresh to locally strong in the western Gulf, highest offshore Veracruz, Mexico. A cold front has emerged off the Texas coast early this morning. Although a few showers are located along this front, no significant convection is occurring. Winds behind the front are fresh NE. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds in the western Gulf ahead of a cold front will prevail today. The front will move slowly through the northern Gulf through Sat, then move into the southeast basin Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front is located over Puerto Rico extending SW into adjacent waters. A surface trough stretches from Haiti to 13N70W. Convection that had been associated with these features has diminished. Overall, the basin is being dominated by relatively dry, fresh trades between high pressure to the north and lower pressure over South America. Strong E winds are occurring in the south-central Caribbean, and see Special Features section about for details on ongoing gales off the coast of Colombia. High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean through Tue night. Winds will pulse each evening off the coast of Colombia, with gales expected early this morning and again Sat evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front extends from 31N53W to Puerto Rico. A band of moderate convection is along this frontal boundary, to the north of 23N. Ahead of this front, an expansive surface ridge centered SW of the Azores is dominating weather, bringing moderate to fresh trades to eastern waters. Behind the front, 1021 mb high pressure center NE of the Bahamas is keeping gentle to moderate northerly winds in place across most areas, but areas north of the Bahamas and offshore Florida are beginning to see moderate to fresh return flow. Northerly swell encompasses much of the basin, with seas averaging 7 to 10 ft. Seas up to 12 ft are observed E of Bermuda along 30N. The cold front will stall and dissipate by tonight. Southerly winds will increase east of northern Florida Fri as a cold front approaches the area. This front will stall off the northern Florida coast Sat, then move SE again Sun as low pressure forms north of the area. Strong S winds are expected in advance of this front Sun, mainly N of 28N. $$ KONARIK