000 AXNT20 KNHC 041736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N18W to 02N24W to the northern coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of the ITCZ to 07N between 20W and 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure centered off the E coast of Florida supports fair weather and gentle to moderate southerly winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are less than 4 ft in the E and central Gulf, increasing to 3-5 ft along the NW Gulf coast. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf early Fri morning. The front will then stall from central Florida to Brownsville, Texas Fri night, then drift northward on Sat. A reinforcing surge of cold air will push the front again across the Gulf waters by late Sat, reaching the SE Gulf waters on Sun, where it will stall by Sun night into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from Port-au-Prince, Haiti to Colon, Panama. Moderate trades are present east of the front, except for fresh to strong trades off the coast of Colombia. Moderate N winds are noted west of the front to 82W. Gentle to moderate E winds along the southern portion of a ridge continue from 82W across the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the E and central Caribbean, decreasing to 3-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Yesterday, cool air behind the stationary front led many local stations in Cuba to report temperatures below 10C/50F. This morning was no different, with 34 reports below 10C/50F, most located in the Havana-Matanzas Plains. The lowest observation recorded was 4.6C/40.3F at Union de Reyes. These cool temperatures often occur between January 15 and February 15, which is climatologically the coldest period in Cuba. The stationary front will weaken and gradually dissipate today. High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N57W to the coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W. Strong S winds are along the front mainly north of 29N, according to the latest scatterometer pass. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 24N east of the front to 55W. A reinforcing cold front enters the area near 31N62W and extends to 26N69W. Gentle to moderate W winds prevail west of both fronts to the Florida coast. Winds and seas associated with the cold front extending from 31N57W to Haiti will diminish today as the front moves eastward and weakens. Southerly winds will increase east of northern Florida on Fri as a cold front approaches the area. The front will stall from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral on Sat, then lift northward Sat night as a low pressure system develops northeast of Jacksonville, Florida. As a result, fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected over the north waters on Sun. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, a strong 1034 mb high pressure north of the area supports moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. Scattered moderate convection associated with an upper level trough is present in the eastern Atlantic from 09N to 20N east of 30W. $$ Mahoney/AR