000 AXNT20 KNHC 021040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N68W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. The front will continue to move east, and reach from 31N62W to Haiti tonight, then it will stall from 30N59W to the Dominican Republic Wed evening before dissipating on Thu night. Gale-force S to SW winds will continue ahead of this front north of 27N today through Wed morning. Near gale to gale W to NW winds will continue behind the front through this afternoon. Seas associated with the front are 12-15 ft, building to 15-20 ft later today and Wed. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 03N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 0N to 08N between 09W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure prevails across the basin in the wake of a cold front currently E of the area. Fresh to strong N to NW winds continue across the eastern half of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. These winds will gradually diminish through this evening as the ridge weakens. Deep-layer dry air covers the basin, thus supporting fair weather. The next cold front will reach the Texas coast Thu night, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico Fri afternoon and stall afterwards before dissipating Sat. Fresh to locally strong S winds are forecast for the western half of the gulf Wed night, ahead of this front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow the front and affect the NW waters Thu night and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends over the NW Caribbean from central Cuba near 22N78W to the N coast of Honduras near 16N86.5W. Isolated showers are near and just ahead of the front between the north coast of Honduras and the Cayman Islands. Scattered tstorms are seen well ahead of the front, near the Windward Passage. A Monday evening ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean east of 75W, except for strong off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are between the front and 75W. Fresh NW to N winds are NW of the front. Seas of 5 to 8 feet are present behind the front in the NW Caribbean, except 7 to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds over the NW Caribbean behind the front will shift to the far SW Caribbean this evening, reaching near gale force speeds along the coast of Nicaragua. Winds will start to diminish in the SW Caribbean Wed morning as the front stalls from Hispaniola to Costa Rica before dissipating Wed night. Fresh to locally strong trade winds in the southern Caribbean will expand to the north-central basin and the Windward Passage Thu and then prevail through Sat night. The long-period N swell that has been experienced over the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic for the past several days will start to subside today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters through Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for details. As of 02/0300 UTC, the strong cold front associated with the Gale Warning extends from 32N71W to central Cuba near 22N78W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection along and within 270 nm SE of the front, from 23N-32N between 64W-74W. A Monday evening ASCAT pass shows strong to gale force S to SW winds in the same area ahead of the front, north of 25N. Behind the front, the ASCAT data show near gale to gale force W to NW winds extending to the east coast of Florida from the Keys to Jacksonville Beach. The strong cold front will progress eastward across the W Atlantic, reaching from near 32N66W to the Windward Passage this afternoon, and from 32N60W to the Dominican Republic Wed afternoon. The front will then stall before dissipating on Thu. Gale force southerly winds ahead of this front will shift eastward with the front through early Wed. Gale force W to NW winds behind the front will diminish to below gale by late this afternoon. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will propagate through the forecast waters through mid-week, combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell will begin to subside Thu through Fri night. Farther east, a 1027 mb high is near 32N51W. A weak cold front extends from 32N30W to 25N47W, stationary to 25N56W, with no significant winds or convection. The front will dissipate by Wed. Fresh to locally strong trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic Ocean from 06N-22N. A recent altimeter pass shows seas of 10 to 11 feet from 20N-30N between 20W-25W. Farther west, seas are likely in the 12 to 15 ft range from 25N-31N between 27W-37W due to residual swell. $$ Ramos