000 AXNT20 KNHC 020450 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N71W to central Cuba near 22N78W. A Monday evening ASCAT pass reveals that gale force winds are occurring on both sides of the front. West of the front, W winds of 30-35 kt prevail from 26N-30N between 76W-80W. The front will continue to move east, reaching from 32N65W to E Cuba by this afternoon and from 32N60W to the Dominican Republic by Wed afternoon. Gale-force S to SW winds will continue ahead of this front north of 27N today through Wed morning. Near gale to gale W to NW winds will continue behind the front through this afternoon. Seas associated with the front are 12-15 ft, building to 15-20 ft later today and Wed. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 03N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 04.5N-07N between 12W-20W, and from 00N-06N between 29W-39W. Scattered showers are near the coast of Brazil from 03S-02N between 47W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends over the western Gulf of Mexico from 1029 mb high pressure centered over southeast Oklahoma. To the east over the Atlantic, a 999 mb storm force low is centered near 35N71W. In between the low and high pressure, strong to locally near gale force NW to N winds cover the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, east of 90W, as indicated in a recent ASCAT pass. Winds of 25 to 30 kt and seas of 10 to 12 ft have recently been reported from several buoys in the eastern Gulf of Mexico around 0200 UTC. Moderate to fresh N winds are elsewhere, except gentle in the far west-central Gulf near the coast of south Texas and NE Mexico. No convection is occurring as deep-layer dry air supports fair weather across the basin. Fresh to strong N to NW winds will prevail across the eastern half of the Gulf and in the Bay of Campeche through this morning. These winds will gradually diminish through this evening as the high pressure over SE Oklahoma shifts east. Southerly flow will then return with seas building over the W Gulf ahead of the next cold front, which will reach the Texas coast Thu night. The front will move across the NW and north-central Gulf Fri and Fri night followed by fresh northerly winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends over the NW Caribbean from central Cuba near 22N78W to the N coast of Honduras near 16N86.5W. Isolated showers are near and just ahead of the front between the north coast of Honduras and the Cayman Islands. Scattered tstorms are seen well ahead of the front, near the Windward Passage. A Monday evening ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean east of 75W, except for strong off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are between the front and 75W. Fresh NW to N winds are NW of the front. Seas of 5 to 8 feet are present behind the front in the NW Caribbean, except 7 to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds over the NW Caribbean behind the front will shift to the far SW Caribbean this evening, reaching near gale force speeds along the coast of Nicaragua. Winds will start to diminish in the SW Caribbean Wed morning as the front stalls from Hispaniola to Costa Rica before dissipating Wed night. Fresh to locally strong trade winds in the southern Caribbean will expand to the north-central basin and the Windward Passage Thu and then prevail through Sat night. The long-period N swell that has been experienced over the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic for the past several days will start to subside today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters through Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for details. As of 02/0300 UTC, the strong cold front associated with the Gale Warning extends from 32N71W to central Cuba near 22N78W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection along and within 270 nm SE of the front, from 23N-32N between 64W-74W. A Monday evening ASCAT pass shows strong to gale force S to SW winds in the same area ahead of the front, north of 25N. Behind the front, the ASCAT data show near gale to gale force W to NW winds extending to the east coast of Florida from the Keys to Jacksonville Beach. The strong cold front will progress eastward across the W Atlantic, reaching from near 32N66W to the Windward Passage this afternoon, and from 32N60W to the Dominican Republic Wed afternoon. The front will then stall before dissipating on Thu. Gale force southerly winds ahead of this front will shift eastward with the front through early Wed. Gale force W to NW winds behind the front will diminish to below gale by late this afternoon. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will propagate through the forecast waters through mid-week, combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell will begin to subside Thu through Fri night. Farther east, a 1027 mb high is near 32N51W. A weak cold front extends from 32N30W to 25N47W, stationary to 25N56W, with no significant winds or convection. The front will dissipate by Wed. Fresh to locally strong trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic Ocean from 06N-22N. A recent altimeter pass shows seas of 10 to 11 feet from 20N-30N between 20W-25W. Farther west, seas are likely in the 12 to 15 ft range from 25N-31N between 27W-37W due to residual swell. $$ Hagen