541 AXNT20 KNHC 012327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Feb 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front in the W Atlantic will continue to quickly move east this afternoon, reaching from 32N65W to E Cuba by Tue afternoon and from 32N60W to the Dominican Republic by Wed afternoon. Gale-force S to SW winds are expected ahead of this front north of 27N today through Wed morning. Near gale force with isolated gale W to NW winds are expected behind the front through Tue afternoon. Seas associated with the front are 12-15 ft, building to 15-20 ft Tue and Wed. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection exists near the ITCZ from 00N to 05N between 30W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... In the wake of the strong cold front that moved across the Gulf of Mexico, N to NE winds of fresh to strong cover the Gulf this afternoon. Buoys 42036 and 42097 are both reporting significant wave height of 11 ft as of 2200 UTC in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. No convection is occurring as deep-layer dry air supports fair weather basinwide. Fresh to strong N to NW winds will continue to prevail across the Gulf through Tuesday. The ridge shifts east Tue and Wed returning S winds across the Gulf with seas building over W Gulf ahead of the next cold front. The next cold front will reach the Texas coast Thu night and move across the NW and north-central Gulf Fri and Fri night followed by fresh N winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong cold front has just entered the NW Caribbean and as of 2100 UTC extends from W Cuba to the Yucatan. Scattered showers are present within 60 NM of the front. As surface pressures lowered north of the Caribbean due to the front, the N-S pressure gradient across the Caribbean has relaxed dropping E trades to generally moderate to fresh, except strong over S central Caribbean. An altimeter pass at 1530 UTC indicated seas of 8 to 10 ft over the SW Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will support up to strong E trades and long- period N swell over the E Caribbean, NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic through Tue. These winds will start to diminish Tue evening. The cold front that has entered the NW Caribbean today, will stall as it reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect the NW Caribbean today through the afternoon and the SW Caribbean from Tue through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will re-develop over the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage Wed night and prevail through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning associated with a quick moving cold front is in effect for western Atlantic waters today through Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for details. As of 2100 UTC, the strong cold front associated with the Gale Warning extends from 32N73W to central Cuba. Outside of the Gale Warning, strong to near gale S to SW winds are occurring ahead of the front and with strong W to NW winds behind of the front, all north of 25N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 NM east of the front, mainly north of 25N. An altimeter pass at 1500 UTC indicated seas of 8 ft just north of the NW Bahamas to 15 ft at 30N along 77W. The strong cold front will progress eastward across W Atlantic, reaching from 32N65W to E Cuba by Tue afternoon and from 32N60W to the Dominican Republic by Wed afternoon. The front will stall before dissipating early on Thu. Gale-force S winds are ahead of this front and will shift eastward with the front through early Wed. N long-period swell associated with the front will propagate through the forecast waters today through mid-week, combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell will begin to subside as it becomes confined to the eastern section of the area Thu through Fri night. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N33W to 28N40W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N51W. Winds on either side of the weak front are moderate to fresh. However, large NW swell of 12-15 ft are associated with the front north of 25N. The front should dissipate by Wed. Elsewhere a 1025 mb Bermuda High is located near 32N54W with a ridge extending generally eastward along 28N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail south of the ridge. $$ Landsea