000 AXNT20 KNHC 011045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida this morning, and reach from 32N61W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of 27N today through Tue night, as the front moves eastward between 80W and 61W. Near gale force W to NW winds are expected behind the front this afternoon into Tue afternoon, with frequent gusts to gale force. Seas associated with the front will quickly build to 10-14 ft today, and to 12-17 ft by Tue in the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale conditions through this morning off the coast of Colombia. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are expected in the area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection exists near the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 32W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extending from Sarasota, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico will reach from Fort Myers, Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula today and move east of the area late Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong winds ahead and behind the front will prevail through tonight with seas to 9 ft. Deep layer dry air supports fair weather basin-wide. Strong southerly winds along with building seas will develop over the western Gulf on Wed and shift to the central Gulf by Fri ahead of the next cold front that will reach the Texas coast Thu night and move across the NW and north-central Gulf Fri and Fri night followed by fresh northerly winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters offshore of Colombia through the early morning hours today. See the Special Features section above for details. Strong to near gale-force trade winds in the central Caribbean will diminish to fresh to strong this morning as high pressure N of the area shifts eastward. Gale force winds near the coast of Colombia will diminish as well. Fresh to locally strong winds and large long-period N swell over the E Caribbean, NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic will start to diminish Tue evening. A cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula later today, then stall as it reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect the NW Caribbean today through Tue morning and the SW Caribbean from Tue through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will re-develop over the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage Wed night and prevail through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW N Atlantic waters today through Tue night. See the Special Features section above for details. A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida today, and reach from near 25N65W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed where it will stall before dissipating early on Thu. Gale force southerly winds are ahead of this front and will shift eastward with the front through early Wed. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will propagate through the forecast waters today through mid-week, combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell will begin to subside as it becomes confined to the eastern section of the area Thu through Fri night. $$ Ramos