000 AXNT20 KNHC 292240 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: An intense low pressure system resides north of the area with a cold front trailing into the subtropics from 32N49W to 19N71W. Gales are occurring on both sides of the front, mainly N of 28N between 45W and 64W. This area of gale force winds will shift eastward with the front through the evening, then move north of the forecast area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean into Tue night, with gale conditions expected to develop near northern Colombia Saturday night. Seas are expected to increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia Sat night through Sunday morning. Gale conditions may again pulse Sun night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N30W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01N to 06N between 19W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface high pressure centered just N of the northern Gulf coast allowing for moderate NE-E flow over the entire basin. Some fresh winds are occurring the Yucatan Channel and offshore Veracruz. A weak surface trough stretches from the NE Mexico coast into the western Bay of Campeche and is producing scattered moderate convection in the extreme SW Gulf. Southerly winds will increase over western Gulf through Sat ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast on Sun. The front will quickly move across the basin Sun through Mon. High pressure in the wake of this front will bring fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf through Mon. These winds will be confined to the eastern Gulf Mon night and Tue and diminish on Tue night. The front will be preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds north of 27N through Sun. Strong southerly winds will develop over the far western Gulf Wed and Wed night along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. A previous cold front has devolved into a surface trough and extends from Hispaniola across Jamaica and into the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection has developed in association with this front in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, strong ENE winds are occurring offshore Colombia, with fresh winds throughout the western basin. Locally strong winds are also occurring in the Windward Passage. Across the eastern Caribbean, generally moderate winds prevail. The surface trough will move southward and dissipate early Sat, while the remainder of the front will become stationary over the far northwest part of the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Sat and gradually weaken through Sun. Strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, with gale conditions expected near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours beginning tonight and through Sun. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters through the weekend, with the largest swell expected Sat night through Sun night. A second cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by late Tue and become stationary and weaken over the far NE Caribbean. Mainly fresh north to northeast winds will follow in behind this front, except for fresh to strong winds through and near the Windward Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the west-central Atlantic Ocean. An intense low pressure system resides north of the area with a cold front trailing into the subtropics from 32N49W to 19N71W. Fresh N winds behind this front encompass most of the western Atlantic, with strong winds N of 25N. Seas up to 32 ft are highest around 30N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm on either side of the front. Elsewhere, the eastern Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging allowing for moderate trades to prevail. The cold front will move to just SE of the area early Sat and become stationary through Sun while weakening. Large northerly swell associated with the front will affect most of the waters east of the Bahamas through Mon. Another strong cold front will move offshore northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from near 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by late Tue. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of 27N, while strong west to northwest winds are expected behind it. Seas will quickly build over the northwest and central forecast waters east and west of the front north of 27N from Sun night through Mon, and over the rest of the waters east of the Bahamas Tue and Tue night. These seas will begin to slowly subside Wed and Wed night. $$ KONARIK