000 AXNT20 KNHC 291806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: An intense low pressure system north of the area trails a cold front into the subtropics from 32N53W to 20N72W. Scatterometer data at 1300 UTC showed a large area of gale force winds on either side of this boundary, north of 26N between 45W and 70W. This area of gale force winds will shift eastward with the front during the next 18 hours, then move north of the forecast area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, with gale conditions expected to develop near northern Colombia Saturday night. The combination of the strong high and the low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds near Colombia on Saturday night. Seas are expected to increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia Saturday night through Sunday morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N30W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01N to 06N between 17W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface high pressure centered over the southeast U.S. is allowing for moderate NE-E flow over the entire basin. An ASCAT pass at 1442 UTC revealed moderate to strong ENE winds in the Yucatan Channel. A weak surface trough stretches from the southern Texas Gulf coast to Veracruz, Mexico and is producing isolated showers in the extreme SW Gulf. Strong winds and large seas remain within the Yucatan Channel in the wake of a cold front that departed the region yesterday. These conditions will gradually diminish today. Southerly winds will increase over western Gulf through Sat ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast on Sun. The front will quickly move across the basin Sun through Mon. High pressure in the wake of this front will bring fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf through Mon. These winds will be confined to the eastern Gulf Mon night and Tue and diminish on Tue night. The front will be preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds north of 27N through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. A dissipating cold front extends from the western coast of Espanola near 20N72W across the NW Caribbean Sea to 19N83W. No significant shower activity is associated with the front . Elsewhere, the latest ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force NE winds off the coast of Colombia becoming fresh to strong throughout the rest of the western half of the basin, with moderate trades in the eastern half of the basin. The weakening cold front will move southward and dissipate early Sat, while the remainder of the front will become stationary over the far northwest part of the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Sat and gradually weaken through Sun. Strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, with gale conditions expected near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours beginning tonight and through Sun. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters through the weekend, with the largest swell expected Sat night through Sun night. A second cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon and from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by late Tue. Mainly fresh winds will follow in behind this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the west-central Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends across the forecast area from 32N52W to the western coast of Esanola where it transitions to a dissipating cold front. Scatterometer data shows strong N winds cover the entire western Atlantic, west of the front. Large seas peaking at 30 ft are observed within the area of strong winds. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and scattered showers are within 75 nm on either side of the front. Elsewhere, the eastern Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging allowing for moderate trades to prevail. The front will move to just southeast of the area early Sat and become stationary through Sun while weakening. Large northerly swell associated with the front will affect most of the waters east of the Bahamas through Mon. Another strong cold front will move offshore northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from near 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by late Tue. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of 27N, while strong west to northwest winds are expected behind it. Seas will quickly build over the northwest and central forecast waters east and west of the front north of 27N from Sun night through Mon, and over the rest of the waters east of the Bahamas Tue and Tue night. $$ Mora