000 AXNT20 KNHC 290533 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front is along 31N62W 22N78W. Expect SW-to-W gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 15 feet to 26 feet, within the area that is bounded by: 27N62W 26N70W 31N75W 31N57W 27N62W. The gale-force winds are forecast for the next 24 hours or so. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to 04N20W, 03N32W, 03N33W, and to 04N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the 05N southward from 33W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 12N southward between 32W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front that was moving across the Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours has passed through the area completely. Surface high pressure spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the upper Texas Gulf coast to the coastal plains of Mexico near 21N97W. Strong winds and large seas, associated with a cold front that is exiting from the region, will diminish gradually through Friday. Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday, in advance of a cold front moving off the Texas coast on Sunday. The front will move quickly across the basin from Sunday through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Bahamas near 23N75W, across Cuba near 22N79W, to 21N83W in the Caribbean Sea. The front becomes dissipating from 21N83W to the NE Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N91W in Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 18N northward from the Windward Passage westward. A surface trough passes through 20N50W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 16N62W a little bit to the west of Guadeloupe. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are elsewhere within 200 nm to the northwest of the surface trough, and within 250 nm to the southeast of the surface trough, including from 15N to 20N between 60W and 65W in the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond the border of Colombia and Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward from 75W westward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. A cold front from central Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula will move southward and weaken across the NW Caribbean Sea through Saturday morning. Strong high pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night. Gale-force wind conditions will be possible near the coast of northern Colombia on Friday night and Saturday night. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean Sea passages, and into the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean through the weekend, with the largest swell expected pm Sunday and Sunday night. A second cold front is forecast to approach the NW Caribbean Sea on Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N61W to 25N70W, through the Bahamas near 23N75W, across Cuba near 22N79W, to 21N83W in the Caribbean Sea. The front becomes dissipating from 21N83W to the NE Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N91W in Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 75 nm on either side of the front, in the Atlantic Ocean. Gale-force winds are associated with this front. A surface trough is along 32N32W, to 26N40W 20N50W, to 16N62W a little bit to the west of Guadeloupe. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N northward beween 25W and 41W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are elsewhere within 200 nm to the northwest of the rest of the surface trough, and within 250 nm to the southeast of the rest of the surface trough, including from 10N to 20N between 40W and 60W, and from 15N to 20N between 60W and 65W in the Caribbean Sea. Gale-force winds and large seas are to the north of 27N in the west central Atlantic Ocean. The current cold front across the forecast area extends from 31N62W to central Cuba. The front will reach from 24N60W to the Windward Passage on Saturday morning, then become stationary from 21N60W to the Mona Passage on Saturday night. Large northerly swell associated with the front will affect most of the forecast area to the east of the Bahamas through Monday. Another cold front will move to the east of northern Florida late on Sunday night or early on Monday. $$ mt/dm