000 AXNT20 KNHC 280104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds as high as 45 kt and extremely large seas, up to around 30 ft on Fri near 31N55W, are expected with this system as it moves eastward across the Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales will first begin late tonight just east of northern Florida. By Thu evening, the gales will be occurring north of 27N between 57W-73W. The gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas are expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between 40W-74W, beginning Thu afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing eastward through Saturday. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front from Alabama to just south of Tampico, Mexico will quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Gale force winds will continue across the west central Gulf through tonight with gales developing over SW Gulf tonight through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish below gale force Thu night, and continue diminishing on Fri. Seas will peak around 8-12 ft during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N18W to 02N27W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 07N between 30W and the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from Alabama to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Ahead of the cold front, a pre- frontal trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. A line of moderate to strong convection is noted within 30nm of the pre- frontal trough north of 28N and east of 86W. Gale force winds prevail west of the front and south of 25N, with fresh to near gale winds elsewhere west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail east of the front. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the western Gulf, with 4-6 ft seas over the central Gulf. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the eastern Gulf as well as the SW Gulf. The cold front will continue moving south and east across the western and central Gulf of Mexico this evening. The front will be over central Florida to Veracruz, Mexico tonight and exit the basin by Thu afternoon. Gale-force winds will continue across the west central Gulf through tonight with gales developing over SW Gulf tonight through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish on Fri. Return S winds should begin building over W Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold front moving off the Texas coast by Sun. This front will move eastward across the basin and shift SE of the area by early Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Tropical N Atlantic into the NE Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds across the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds across the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the south- central Caribbean through the end of the week. Gale conditions are possible Fri night and Sat night north of Colombia. A strong cold front will move across the NW Caribbean on Thu. Behind the front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over the NW Caribbean waters through Sat and over the Atlantic passages from Fri afternoon through Sun. N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night. The next cold front may approach the NW Caribbean on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic. West of 65W: A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the southern portion of the forecast waters, anchored by high pressure of 1021 mb centered near 24N62W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range east of 70W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere west of 70W. For the forecast, a strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. The front will stretch from 31N69W to western Cuba by Thu afternoon and from 31N59W to eastern Cuba by Thu night. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system tonight through Thu night, mainly N of 27N. Winds should diminish by Fri and seas should subside by Sun. The next cold front may move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night with fresh to strong winds off the Florida coast. East of 65W, a stationary front extends from near 31N32W to the northern Leeward Islands near 17N62W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail east of 65W and N of 20N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 20N. Seas of 12-14 ft prevail N of 29N between 30W and 45W. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range elsewhere north of 20N, and 5-8 ft south of 20N. $$ AL