000 AXNT20 KNHC 262202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast region. Near gale to gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system Wed night through early Fri, mainly N of 26N from the NE Florida offshore waters to the central Atlantic waters. Seas as high as 20 to 30 ft are expected across the western and central Atlantic, particularly N of 27N between 50W and 70W by Thu night, with seas of 12 ft reaching the waters just E of the northern and central Bahamas. These hazardous marine conditions will dominate the central Atlantic by Fri. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea combined with a developing low over NW Colombia will support minimal gale force winds over Colombia adjacent waters tonight through early Wed morning. Wave heights in the range of 10-14 ft are expected during the peak winds tonight. Gale conditions are possible again Friday and Saturday night. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A reinforcing cold front will reach a stationary front analyzed along the far western Gulf of Mexico by Wed morning, and the combined front will quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds will follow the front, with gales developing over the W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed early evening through Thu. Seas are forecast to build to 10-14 ft over the SW Gulf by early Thu morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W to 04N14W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N14W to 04N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 22W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about a gale warning for the far western Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front extends from south- central Louisiana SW to a 1009 mb low over the SW Gulf. A ridge extends across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail over the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the eastern Gulf, and 4-6 ft over the western Gulf. The stationary front will continue to linger across the region through tonight. A reinforcing cold front will reach the stationary front by Wed morning and the combined front will quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front with gales developing over W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish on Fri. Return S winds should begin building over W Gulf on Fri evening ahead of the next cold front moving off the Texas coast by Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about a gale warning for the Colombia adjacent waters. High pressure prevails north of the area. Fresh to near gale winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft over the western Caribbean. High pressure N of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will support minimal gale force winds near the northern Colombian coast tonight through early Wed morning. Gale conditions are possible again Fri and Sat night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Thu. Behind the front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over the NW Caribbean waters on Fri and through the passes Fri afternoon through Sat. N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters today through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about an Atlantic gale warning. West of 65W: Surface high pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 26N66W with ridge extending westward across Florida. Moderate to fresh winds are noted on either side of the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds along the ridge axis. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range east of 70W, and 3-5 ft over the open waters west of 70W. For the forecast, low pressure crossing north of Bermuda will bring fresh to strong W winds off the NE coast of Florida tonight into Wed. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night, mainly N of 27N. Winds should diminish by Fri and seas should subside by Sun. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N34W SW to the NE Caribbean. Fresh to near gale winds prevail within 210 nm east of the front N of 28N, with fresh to strong winds west of the front and N of 29N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 20N. The cold front has ushered in a set of NW swell. Seas of 12-18 ft are noted N of 25N between 35W and 57W, with seas in the 8-12 ft range elsewhere N of 20N. South of 20N, seas are in the 5-7 ft range. $$ AL