000 AXNT20 KNHC 251748 TWDAT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 251017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jan 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm off the coast of Colombia each night through at least early Wed morning. Wave heights generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13 ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N18W to 03N40W to the coast of northern Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 00N to 06N W of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... Patchy dense fog can be seen on satellite along the northern Gulf coast from Galveston, TX to Morgan City, LA and near the Florida coast from Apalachicola to the western Apalachee Bay. Fog will be possible in these areas until this evening. Buoy, platform observations, and latest scatterometer data, depict fresh to locally strong SE to S winds across the western Gulf of Mexico. In the eastern Gulf, high pressure over the western Atlantic is driving mainly moderate to locally fresh SE winds. Other than the patchy dense fog mentioned above, no significant weather is observed in the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between a ridge over the eastern Gulf waters and lower pressure over Mexico and Texas will continue to support fresh to strong S winds across W Gulf today. A weak cold front will move off the coast of Texas this evening, then stall over NW Gulf through Tue. A reinforcing cold front will reach the stationary front by Tue night, and the combined front will quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front, with gales developing over W Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about gale force winds during the overnight and early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. According to the latest scatterometer pass, moderate to fresh trades prevail over the Caribbean, with an area of strong winds observed in the central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola. Fresh to locally strong winds are also expected in the Windward passage today, extending to the night hours. Otherwise, middle-level water vapor imagery show dry and stable air over the basin, with only a few plumes of shallow moisture depicted in the low-level precipitable water imagery. This shallow moisture along with middle to upper level diffluent flow may support isolated showers mainly over the NW Caribbean today. The Bermuda high north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian Low will support trades near gale to gale force, continuing during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed night. Pulsing near gale to gale force winds will likely resume again in this area Fri night. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue night with seas building to 6-8 ft. N swell will propagate into the Tropical N Atlantic waters Tue through Thu. A reinforcing cold front is approaching the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today, reaching these islands on Tue. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Thu followed by fresh to strong NE winds over the NW Caribbean waters on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic from 31N40W to 22N52W and terminates at 20N72W near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Fresh to strong SW to W winds associated with the front are north of 25N between 39W and 60W as indicated by the latest scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are within 180 nm either side of the front N of 27N. Otherwise, surface high pressure prevails over the SW N Atlc waters, being anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 30N74W. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh southerly flow between the center of high pressure and the NE coast of Florida. Looking ahead in the western Atlantic, the cold front extending along 21N will continue to move southward into the Greater Antilles on Tue. S winds will increase across the waters east of N Florida today and tonight. Low pressure crossing north of Bermuda will bring fresh to strong W winds to the NE waters on Tue. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night, mainly N of 27N. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a high pressure of 1026 mb located north of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are along the southern periphery of the ridge. $$ Mahoney/Ramos