000 AXNT20 KNHC 220602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Expect gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, from the early morning hours of today until the middle of today. Expect the same conditions in the same areas in 24 hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 04N20W, and to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W, to the Equator along 28W, and to 01S34W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 01N to 03N between 17W and 19W, and within 60 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 18W and 20W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 30W and 53W. An upper level trough is along 35W, from a cyclonic circulation center that is near 18N, southward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong are from 29N southward from 37W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure center is between Andros Island, the NW Bahamas, and SE Florida. A surface ridge extends from the 1019 mb high pressure center, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. A surface ridge extends from southern Florida to northeast Texas. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico by late Friday. The front will stall across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday night, then dissipate through Saturday night. High pressure, building to the north of front in the Carolinas, will support an increase of SE winds and building seas across the western Gulf of Mexico from Saturday into Sunday. Strong SE winds are possible in the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Sunday night, as low pressure forms in northern Mexico. The winds and the seas diminish across the Gulf into Monday, as the high pressure shifts more to the east and a weak cold front moves into the coastal waters of Texas through Monday night. The front will stall in the NW Gulf of Mexico, and move northward on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond 07N78W in Colombia just to the south of the border with Panama. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 45 nm to the east of the monsoon trough from 06N to 07N between 76W and 78W. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. Comparatively drier air in subsidence spans the entire Caribbean Sea. High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale-force during the overnight hours off Colombia through the next several nights. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N49W to 30N53W, 28N60W and 27N70W. A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N45W to 29N50W, 24N60W and 21N70W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 23N northward between 30W and 60W. A 1019 mb high pressure center is between Andros Island, the NW Bahamas, and SE Florida. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the Greater Antilles northward from 70W westward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 32N26W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 18N northward from 50W eastward. A dissipating cold front from 27N65W to 26N70W will completely dissipate later tonight. Another front will move into the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida on Friday. The front will reach along 29N by Saturday morning, then merging with a reinforcing front along 23N to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sunday evening, then stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by Monday evening. High pressure will build into the area in the wake of this front. Yet another cold front may move across the basin on Tuesday and Tuesday night. $$ mt/jl