000 AXNT20 KNHC 220005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Local overnight land breeze influences will allow these winds to pulse to gale force tonight along the coast of Colombia, mainly within 90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla. The high pressure weakens by Fri night, but will be strong enough to support additional gales in this area late Fri night into early Sat morning. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Guinea near 10N15W, continuing to 04N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues along 03N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection and scattered tstms is off the coast of W Africa from 02N to 07N between 10W and 19W. Latest scatterometer data show gust to gale force winds in the region of strongest convection. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N between 32W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... With little support aloft, a weak stationary front is over the NW gulf extending from 29N95W to inland NE Mexico near 25N97W. Shallow moisture associated with this frontal boundary continues to favor patchy fog over Texas coastal waters. Surface high pressure anchored over SW Florida adjacent waters provides light to gentle return flow across the basin, except for locally moderate southerly flow ahead of the stationary front. High pressure over the southeast Gulf will shift eastward into the SW N Atlantic waters tonight. Associated surface ridge will extend into the southern Gulf through Fri ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf by late Fri. The front will stall across the northern Gulf Fri night, then dissipate through Sat night. High pressure building north of front over the Carolinas will support an increase of SE winds and building seas across the western Gulf Sat into Sun, with strong SE winds possible in the northwest Gulf by Sun night as low pressure forms over northern Mexico. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf into Mon as the high shifts farther east and a weak cold front moves into the coastal waters of Texas through Mon night. The front will stall over the NW Gulf and lift northward Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia. Fresh NE winds prevail over the NW Caribbean as strong high pressure remains N of the area. However, fresh to strong winds prevails in the SW and portions of the south-central Caribbean due to lower pressure over NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight hours off Colombia through the next several nights. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front from 27N65W to 26N70W will dissipate tonight. Another front will move into the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida Fri evening, reaching along 27N by Sat evening, along 23N east of the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sun evening, then stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by Mon evening. High pressure will build over the area in the wake of this front. $$ Ramos