030 AXNT20 KNHC 171755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area will support strong to near gale force winds over the south- central Caribbean through mid week. Overnight land breezes will allow these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 02N32W and to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure centered over the western Gulf near 25N93W through the Straits of Florida. This high pressure is following a cold front that moved southeast of the basin yesterday. An ASCAT pass at1530 UTC reveals light to gentle NW breezes over most of the Gulf, turning easterly in the extreme southern gulf due to anticyclonic flow around the ridge. Seas are likely 4 to 8 ft in lingering NW swell over the eastern Gulf, although these seas are subsiding quickly. Fairly dry conditions are present, however broken to overcast clouds persist in the southern Gulf. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. High pressure is building over the western Gulf. This system will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast Mexico. These winds will diminish some by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central basin. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from eastern Cuba to central Honduras. Recent scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh N-NE winds west the front and north of the coast of Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the boundary. High pressure building north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds with 5-7 ft over the remainder of the basin, but with strong trade winds and seas to 8 ft off Colombia. Additionally, upper level ridging and deep layered dry air is allowing for drier conditions in the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through Mon. The high pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region will bring increasing winds and building seas over the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia mainly at night through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from west of Bermuda near 32N61W to 22N75W near the Turks and Caicos Islands, where it transitions to a stationary front and extends into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are observed within 130 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. The main upper dynamics supporting the front are lifting out to the north, allowing sustained winds and gusts to diminish over the waters north of25N. Seas are still very high, with the buoy 41048 near 32N69W reporting 17 ft significant wave heights. This is due to the shorter period W to NW swell. Seas in excess of 8 ft cover most of the area north of 26N between 65W and 75W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in open waters with gentle to moderate winds. For the forecast, the cold front extending from 31N61W to Eastern Cuba will stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba late today, then will dissipate Mon. Another cold front will move southeast off the NE Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, then stall and dissipate from 23N65W to eastern Cuba through mid week. Another cold front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida Wed night, and become stationary along 25N into the central Bahamas by late Thu. Farther east, a cold front extends from the northwest Azores to near 30N41W, denting a ridge that prevails north of 20N. The ridge is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh trade winds with locally strong winds off the west coast of Africa between 18N-24N. Seas range from 8-10 ft with mixed N and NE swell. $$ Mora