000 AXNT20 KNHC 170547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong W-NW winds have arrived behind a strong cold front and reinforcing trough in the SW N Atlantic, with frequent gusts to gale force N of 28N. SW winds to gale force are possible within 90 nm east of the front, north of 29N. These winds will persist into early Sun. Seas are expected to reach 13-15 ft along 31N during this event. South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will intensify over the south-central Caribbean with winds reaching gale force beginning on Sun night, pulsing each night through next week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either sides of both boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb surface high centered near 26N95W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the area. Seas of 5-8 ft will prevail across the basin. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set-up over the northwest Gulf Mon night into Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas. These winds will diminish some by the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central basin. Please see Special Features section for more details. A stationary front extends across the western Caribbean from 21N78W to 16N87W. Scattered showers are possible east of this boundary. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds north of the front and over the south central Caribbean S of 16N between 68W-76W, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas will range from 3-5 ft across most of the basin, with 6-8 ft near the Yucatan Channel and the south central Caribbean where the highest winds are noted. The front will dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region will bring increasing winds and building seas over the south-central Caribbean, with gale conditions possible near the coast of Colombia at night starting Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... There is a gale warning in effect for the SW N Atlantic basin. Please see Special Features section for more details. West of 60W, a cold front extends from 31N68W to 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 21N and east of the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly flow N of 24N within 90-180 nm ahead of the front, with gentle to moderate southerly flow elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except 4-7 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds. East of 60W, a stationary front extends from 31N42W to 27N50W. No convection is related to this boundary at this time. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 39N14W. Seas of 7-10 ft will dominate the waters S of 20N, locally strong near 07N, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell elsewhere. The west Atlantic cold front will stall from 27N65W to eastern Cuba today, and dissipating on Mon. A reinforcing cold front will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda today, and reach from from 23N65W to eastern Cuba by Wed while gradually dissipating. Another cold front is forecast to move into waters off NE Florida coast by Wed night, and reach from Bermuda to near the northern Bahamas by late Thu. $$ ERA