000 AXNT20 KNHC 161034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is currently moving through the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel, with reinforcing cold air moving into the northern Gulf. Strong to near gale force winds are mixing to the surface, as noted in recent buoy and platform observations and scatterometer data. Buoy data also indicates there are frequent gusts to gale force over the north central Gulf, and a gale warning is in effect through the morning for the north central and northeast Gulf. Seas are building to as high as 11 ft in the north central and northeast Gulf as well. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 04N30W to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 10W and 13W. Scattered moderate convection is also observed from 01N to 04N between 20W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warning in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge extends from high pressure over northeast Mexico to the central Gulf. Fresh NE winds are noted over the central and eastern Gulf with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh N winds are evident in scatterometer data over the southwest Gulf, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate N to NE winds are noted over the west central Gulf near the ridge axis, with 3 to 5 ft seas. No shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. For the forecast, winds over the north central and northeast Gulf will diminish by late afternoon today as high pressure builds over the western Gulf behind the front. Associated seas will subside this evening. The high pressure will support generally tranquil marine conditions across the basin Sun into Mon, then will shift east of the area early next week. This pattern will support increased winds and seas over the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas, before diminishing through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front from western Cuba to northern Belize is dissipating ahead of a cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel. Radar from Grand Cayman indicates a few showers are ongoing along these boundaries over the northwest Caribbean, moving to the northeast. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted over the northwest Caribbean, although winds are likely increasing near the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the northwest Caribbean. Farther south, strong trade winds are active off the coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and Barranquilla, with 8 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. Regional radar shows scattered showers moving quickly westward in the trade flow across the ABC Islands, as well as a few showers in the Windward Islands and Puerto Rico. For the forecast, the cold front entering the Yucatan Channel will weaken as it moves across the northwest Caribbean today. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region will support the expansion of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover most of the south- central and southwest Caribbean from Sun through Wed night. These winds may pulse to gale force mainly at night off Colombia starting Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 55W: a cold front that recently moved off the northeast Florida coast reaches from 31N76W to West Palm Beach, Florida. Buoy observations show strong W to NW winds and building seas following the front. The front will reinforcing a mostly stationary front dissipating along 25N through the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters are evident ahead of the front in the waters north of 27N and west of 70W. Weak ridging centered near 31N60W is maintaining gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered showers are evident on regional radar ahead of the front from the Upper Florida Keys to the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers are also likely ahead of the front from 27N to 29N between 70W and 75W. For the forecast, the cold front moving off northeast Florida will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight, before stalling from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by late Sun and dissipating early Mon. Another cold front will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda late Sun, and also stall from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by Mon night and early Tue, before dissipating through mid week. Farther east, a cold front reaches from 31N45W to 26N55W. Ridging dominates the eastern Atlantic north of 20N, supporting fresh trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mainly NE swell south of 20N. $$ Christensen