000 AXNT20 KNHC 160602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 06N10W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to 04N31W and 06N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 20W eastward, and elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the rest of the ITCZ. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N80W, to Florida near 28N82W, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the northern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, to 19N96W in Mexico. The front becomes stationary at 19N96W, and the front continues northwestward in Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the SE of the cold front, and within 120 nm to the NW of the cold front. A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, to the NW Caribbean Sea near 18N87W, just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the stationary front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is moving into the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, curving to the northern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The current cold front, from Tampa Bay in Florida to Merida in Mexico, will move eastward across the entire Gulf overnight, with reinforcing cold air supporting strong NW winds and building seas over the northeast and north central Gulf tonight through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and support generally tranquil marine conditions across the basin Sun into Mon. The high pressure will shift east of the area early next week, allowing winds and seas to increase over the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas, before diminishing through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, to the NW Caribbean Sea near 18N87W, just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the stationary front, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 74W in northern Colombia and 83W in western Panama. Water vapor satellite imagery and the GFS model for 250 mb show an upper level ridge that extends from NE Venezuela beyond Nicaragua to Guatemala. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from 75W westward. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The current cold front, that is moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will move through the Yucatan Channel overnight, then weaken as it moves across the northwest Caribbean Sat. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night, then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region will support the expansion of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover most of the south-central and southwest Caribbean from Sun through Wed night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba by Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N47W to 29N50W 26N60W and 25N68W. A stationary front continues from 25N68W, to 26N76W, curving across Andros Island in the Bahamas, across NW Cuba, to the NW Caribbean Sea near 18N87W, just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 23N northward between 34W and 50W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 27N northward between 68W and 74W. A surface ridge extends from a 1037 mb high pressure center that is near 37N17W, through 32N26W to 26N32W, to 24N50W, and to 22N68W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 14N northward from 70W eastward. The current cold front, moving off northeast Florida, will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight, before stalling from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by late Sun and dissipating early Mon. Another cold front will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda late Sun, and also stall from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by Mon night and early Tue, and will dissipate through mid week. $$ mt/ec