000 AXNT20 KNHC 151010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia 07N11W near 07N12W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N41W and 02N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 13W and 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front reaches from the Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, to northern part of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, just south of Brownsville, Texas. A recent scatterometer satellite pass along with platform and buoy data indicated fresh to strong northerly winds within 60 nm of the coast of Texas. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated seas were still only 5 to 7 ft, but these seas are likely building rapidly. Platform data indicated the strong northerly flow were following the cold front off the coast of Louisiana as well. Fresh SW winds are noted in buoy and scatterometer data ahead of the front over the northern Gulf. Farther south, a stationary front reaches from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel. 1016 mb high pressure is centered between these frontal boundaries near 24N89W. Gentle to moderate winds with mostly 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front over the northwest Gulf will move eastward across the entire basin through tonight, with reinforcing cold air supporting strong NW winds and building seas over the northeast and north central Gulf tonight through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and support generally tranquil marine conditions across the basin Sun into Mon. The high pressure will shift east of the area early next week, allowing winds and seas will increase over the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, to the coast of NW Cuba, to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. A few light showers are possible along the front in the Yucatan Channel, due to light, moist southerly flow overrunning the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, weak ridging over eastern Cuba is still strong enough to support fresh to strong trade winds off Colombia, with seas estimated to be 8 ft, mainly off the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are estimated elsewhere over all but the northwest Caribbean, where light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. Regional radar indicates a few showers moving rapidly westward in the trade wind flow across the Windward Islands. For the forecast, a cold front moving eastward over the waters north of 27N is reinforcing a weak stationary front from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida. The merged front will continue eastward and move east of 65W through late today. The next cold front will enter the NW waters tonight and reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat morning, from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through Mon. Meanwhile, another front will move off the NE Florida coast late Sun night, move east and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba by late Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N65W, across the northern Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida. A cold front extends from 31N68W to 27N75W. This reinforcing front is associated with a rapidly intensifying 999 mb developing storm center north of Bermuda. The cold front is currently bearing down on the northern portion of the stationary front. Recent ship observations and scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong SW to W wind along and just ahead of the cold front north of 27N, with seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, the subtropical ridge is displaced southward to along 23N/24W through the central Bahamas, maintaining light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters south of 27N. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted west of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front moving eastward over the waters north of 27N will merge with the weak stationary front. The merged front swill continue eastward and move east of 65W through late today. The next cold front will enter the NW waters tonight and reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat morning, from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through Mon. Meanwhile, another front will move off the NE Florida coast late Sun night, move east and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Farther east, the subtropical ridge reaches from near Madeira in the eastern Atlantic to 24N55W. Fresh trade winds and 8 to 9 ft seas area evident south of the ridge. Moderate S to SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted north of the ridge. $$ Christensen