000 AXNT20 KNHC 141031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jan 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 02N29W to 02N40W. Isolated showers are within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and elsewhere from 10N southward and 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through 25N80W in the Straits of Florida to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers are along the frontal boundary. A surface trough extends from 21N95W in the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico across the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers are from 24N southward and 87W westward. A 1021 mb high is centered near 24N95W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers most the Gulf of Mexico in association with this high pressure center. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Friday, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to 22N95W to southern Mexico south of Veracruz Friday evening. Reinforcing cold air will increase winds behind the front in the northern Gulf Friday night and Saturday while the front weakens and sinks SE of the basin. High pressure will prevail over the Gulf Sunday and Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 17N86W in the NW Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers are in the NW part of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in northern Colombia and 83W in western Panama. Isolated showers span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and showers are moving with the low level easterly trade wind flow. Trade winds across the central Caribbean will gradually diminish through Friday as high pressure north of the region shifts eastward. A weak cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Friday night, then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N60W to 25N80W. Scattered moderate showers are from 180 nm to 300 nm NW of the stationary front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and ebedded showers are elsewhere northwest of the front. A surface trough is along 32N40W to 26N50W to 21N67W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of 24N between 40W and 52W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean east of 40W, north of 20N. The stationary front will dissipate later today. A cold front moving off northern Florida late Friday will increase SW winds ahead of the front, north of the Bahamas. The cold front will reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Saturday morning, from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Sunday morning, then stall and dissipate through Monday. $$ Mundell