000 AXNT20 KNHC 140020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jan 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N34W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 23W to 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front lingers across the southern Gulf along the western Cuban coast and the Yucatan Passage. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Yucatan Passage along with showers off the south-central Florida coast. In the western and central Gulf, ridging from high pressure over Mexico extends across this area with quiescent weather. Strong N winds are noted in the southwest Bay of Campeche with fresh N winds in the central and eastern portion of the region. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail in the northern Gulf. Seas range 2 to 6 ft with upwards of 8 ft in the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough across the SW Gulf will maintain strong NW winds near the coast of Mexico this evening before weakening considerably tonight. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Fri and extend from the Florida Big Bend panhandle to 22N95W to southern Mexico south of Veracruz Fri evening. Reinforcing cold air will increase winds behind the front in the northern Gulf Fri night and Sat as the front weakens and sinks SE of the basin. High pressure will remain centered over the Gulf Sun and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the comparatively lower surface pressure in Colombia and Panama is supporting moderate to fresh winds in the south- central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Isolated convection is noted along the coast of Panama. Seas range 6 to 8 ft with upwards of 10 ft near the coast of Colombia. High pressure centered SE of Bermuda will maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through early Thu, before winds and seas gradually diminish Thu afternoon through Fri as high pressure shifts eastward. These conditions are expected to persist through the weekend. A weakening cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Fri night, then stall and dissipate from E Cuba to Gulf of Honduras Sun afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a cold front continues to press eastward as it stretches from 31N67W to the northern Bahamas near 26N78W. The front stalls from 26N78W across the Straits of Florida to the northwestern Cuban coast. Showers are noted off the Florida coast, N of 27N and west of 76W. Scattered showers are also noted within 50 nm of the front. Moderate northerly winds are behind the front. In the central Atlantic, a dying stationary front stretches from 31N41W to 22N66W. Showers are north of this boundary, N of 26N between 47W to 60W. Moderate winds prevail across this region of the Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, ridging is noted across the area anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure near 36N16W. Seas range 4 to 9 ft across the western and central Atlantic. The weak cold front will stall and dissipate tonight. A secondary cold front will move into the N Florida waters late Fri. SW winds will increase to strong north of the Bahamas Fri night ahead of this front and shift eastward ahead of it. The front will reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to W Cuba Sat morning and from 27N65W to E Cuba Sun morning before stalling and dissipating. $$ AReinhart