000 AXNT20 KNHC 120530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low is currently supporting gale force winds offshore Colombia. The latest ASCAT data from Monday evening shows E gales to 35 kt from 11N-13N between 73.5W-76W. These winds will diminish below gale force by 1500 UTC this morning. Gales are expected again tonight into early Wed morning. Wave heights of 12-14 ft are expected in the gale force wind area. These winds and seas will diminish Thu as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 04N23W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 04N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. The latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection from 02N-08N between 07W-15W, and from 04N-07N between 28W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 12/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from a 1018 mb low near Tallahassee Florida to 26N85W to the NW Yucatan Peninsula near 21N90W, and stationary to 19N92W. Scattered showers are on both sides of the front, covering the central and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. These showers are being enhanced by upper-level divergence. Clearing is found over the NW Gulf due to strong 1029 mb high pressure over Texas. Latest ASCAT data show fresh NW to N winds behind the front over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds over the SW Gulf have diminished below gale force as of Monday evening, and are now strong, mainly south of 24N. The ASCAT pass also indicates that a surface trough has formed offshore of Veracruz Mexico, with strong to near gale force NW winds along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz. For the forecast, the front will slowly reach the far SE Gulf tonight, then dissipate over the Straits of Florida through Thu. North winds behind the front will diminish to mainly fresh later this morning. A coastal trough over the western Gulf will maintain strong NW winds between the trough and the coast of Mexico today and Wed while high pressure building across the northern Gulf will allow winds and seas to diminish elsewhere. Looking ahead, another front will reach the northern Gulf Fri, producing fresh winds and building seas behind it. The front will move over the eastern Gulf through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section for more information. Elsewhere, the most recent ASCAT data show strong winds covering the central Caribbean south of 17N between 67W-80W. Fresh trades are east of 67W. Moderate to fresh winds are seen elsewhere. Scattered showers cover the western Caribbean west of 78W, enhanced by upper level divergence over the area. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through mid week, with pulses to gale force off Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours. These winds and seas will diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1027 mb centered just south of Bermuda dominates the western Atlantic. However, a stationary front extends from 32N79W to the coast of Georgia to a 1017 mb low pressure near Tallahassee Florida, with a cold front extending SSW over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This weakening cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue morning and reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wed. The front will stall and start to dissipate Thu from 31N65W to the southern Bahamas, ahead of a reinforcing front moving across the waters north of 27N that will move east of 65W through Fri. Winds and seas will increase north of the Bahamas late Fri ahead of another cold front expected to move off the Florida coast Sat. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N44W to 27N51W to 24N60W, and stationary to 22N72W. The stationary portion of this front west of 65W will dissipate today. Fresh to strong SW winds are north of 29N and within 210 nm SE of the cold front. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the same area, north of 29N between 37W-44W. Isolated to scattered showers are seen along and north of the stationary front, extending west to cover much of the Bahamas. A 1030 mb high near 33N24W is spreading ridging over the E Atlantic. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong trade winds south of this high, from 10N-20N between 45W and the coast of Africa. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range within this area of winds, forecast to persist through today. $$ Hagen