000 AXNT20 KNHC 101734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jan 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Frequent gusts of strong to gale force winds are expected tonight over portions of the NW Gulf of Mexico in association with developing low pressure system and its associated cold front. As the front moves across the basin, gale force north winds are expected behind the front south of 24N and west of 95W beginning on early Mon. These conditions will translate from offshore Tampico Mon morning to offshore Veracruz on Mon afternoon. Wave heights over this area will build to 10-13 ft. Winds and seas will diminish by late Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between strong western Atlantic high and lower pressure over South America will result in strong to gale force northeast to east winds along and to within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia Mon night into early Tue. Wave heights will be in the range of 9-14 ft in this area. The high pressure will weaken on Tue as it shifts east- southeastward across the central Atlantic allowing for these winds to diminish below gale force. Wave heights will slightly subside by late Tue. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 05N19W, then transitions to the ITCZ from that point to the coast of Brazil at 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ mainly between 20W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features section above for details. Surface ridging and associated dry and stable conditions are present over the eastern and central sections of the Gulf. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving over the NW Gulf as upper-level divergence east of a shortwave trough begins to infiltrate the area. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are noted in scatterometer data over the western half of the basin, while gentle easterly winds prevail over the eastern half. Wave heights over the NW Gulf will build to 10 ft within the gale area. Low pressure over southern Texas will deepen as it moves into the far northwest Gulf today, then weaken as it moves across the northern Gulf into the Florida Big Bend area through Tue. Northerly winds following a trailing cold front will reach gale force over the western Gulf this evening and tonight. Expect showers and thunderstorms across the northern Gulf through tonight as well. Winds and seas will diminish through mid week as the front moves east of the basin followed by high pressure building across the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to 17N80W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 200 nm southeast of the front. At the same time, increasing clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to the southwestern Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin, and fresh to strong winds within 90 nm north of the Colombian coastline. The stationary front will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean will continue through late Wed night, then diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Thu night. Northeast to east trades will reach gale force speeds along and near the coast of Colombia on Mon night. A weakening cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean on Tue, then become stationary from west- central Cuba to the northwestern Caribbean late Tue into Wed and dissipate by early Thu as high pressure builds from the Gulf of Mexico southeastward across the northwest Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to 20N72W. Scattered showers along the front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong south to southwest winds north of 29N and east of the front to near 50W and fresh to strong winds north of 29N west of the front to 68W. Related wave heights are in the range of 9-12 ft. Surface ridge prevails to the east of this front anchored by a 1033 mb high center located at 32N27W. Latest scatterometer data depicts an extensive area of fresh to strong northeast to east trades that covers the Atlantic waters south of a line from 25N35W to 20N45W to 15N61W. Wave heights generated by these persistent winds are in the range of 8-11 ft. The cold front over the west-central Atlantic will continue moving east while weakening. Another cold front is expected to move east of the Florida coast on Tue. It will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N68W to 26N72W and to central Cuba Wed afternoon, then move east of the area by early Thu. Yet another cold front will move across the NW part of the area on Thu. $$ ERA