000 AXNT20 KNHC 072149 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 1009 mb low pressure near Jackson, Mississippi to the western Florida Panhandle across the central Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche and near the coast of Mexico at 19N96W, continuing inland across eastern Mexico as a stationary front. A warm front is analyzed along the northern Florida border. High pressure of 1024 mb centered over northern Mexico near 26N100W is building in behind the front and supporting winds to minimal gale force offshore of Veracruz this afternoon and seas to around 8 ft. The gale force winds are forecast to diminish late this evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: A powerful area of low pressure centered near 32N19W is producing a large area of gale force winds between the Azores and Canary Islands as verified by earlier scatterometer data. These gale conditions will continue to impact the Meteo France areas of Madeira, Casablanca, Agadir and Canarias tonight. Please read the latest Meteo France High Seas Forecast at website http://www.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 05N30W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-07N between 26W-53W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted from 02N-08N between 08W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above information on a Gale Warning in effect for the offshore waters of the southwest Gulf of Mexico near Veracruz. As mentioned above, a cold front extends from 1009 mb low pressure near Jackson, Mississippi to the western Florida Panhandle across the central Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche and near the coast of Mexico at 19N96W, continuing inland across eastern Mexico as a stationary front. A warm front is analyzed along the northern Florida border. High pressure of 1024 mb centered over northern Mexico near 26N100W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front, although no deep convection is noted. Earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong winds north of 25N and ahead of the front with occasionally higher gusts possible in areas of convection, with fresh to strong W-NW winds behind the front outside of the area of gales near Veracruz. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less ahead of the front outside any convection, and 5-8 ft behind the front. The cold front will continue moving across the eastern Gulf through tonight and exit the basin Fri morning. The surge of strong NW winds will begin to diminish by Fri morning and along with subsiding seas. High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the front with moderate winds prevailing through Sat. The next cold front will push off the Texas coast by Sun evening and bring strong NW winds across the western and central Gulf on Mon. Possible gale force winds are forecast again offshore of Veracruz on Mon. That cold front will exit the Gulf by Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... No significant surface features are analyzed across the Caribbean basin this afternoon, however a weak Atlantic ridge extends into the northwest Caribbean. Earlier scatterometer data indicated gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds under the ridge in the northwest Caribbean, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere across the basin. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less in the northwest Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Generally moderate trades will prevail over the basin through late week. Nightly pulses of strong winds expected off the Colombia coast with near gale-force winds on Mon night. A cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel tonight and linger in the northwest Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to strong trade winds can be expected toward the end of the weekend and into early next week for the central and eastern Caribbean. The next cold front will approach the northwest Caribbean by late Tues into Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in effect in the far eastern Atlantic. No significant surface features are analyzed west of 65W, except for a weak ridge of high pressure which extends from 24N65W to the northwest near Savannah, Georgia. Earlier scatterometer data showed mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin west of 65W. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft across the waters outside of the Bahamas, except 7-10 ft in NW swell across the northeast portion of the SW N Atlantic offshore waters. East of 65W, a cold front is analyzed from 32N44W to 27N54W where it transitions to a stationary front continuing to 23N62W then a trough toward the north-central coast of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers are possible on either side of the front and trough. High pressure of 1018 mb is analyzed southeast of the front near 23N49W. Earlier scatterometer data indicated moderate to locally fresh winds within 60-90 nm ahead of the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds were noted elsewhere north of 18N and east of the front to 35W, with moderate to fresh trades south of 18N. Seas of 5-8 ft are noted from 15N- 25N west of 35W, and mainly 7-11 ft elsewhere, except larger seas of 8-19 ft in swell generated by the gale force low in the eastern Atlantic. The cold front in the central Atlantic is expected to dissipate tonight. The next cold front will move off the Florida coast early Fri morning, bringing a broad area of strong to near gale-force winds on both sides of it north of 26N through Sat night. By Tue, another cold front will push off the Florida coast and bring fresh NW winds through Tue night. $$ Lewitsky