000 AXNT20 KNHC 070600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jan 07 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... The 12-hour forecast, that starts at 07/0000 UTC, consists of a cold front from 31N90W to 18N97W. Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds, and sea heights less than 8 feet, in the area that is bounded by the points from 19N95W to 19N96W to 19N97W to 21N97W to 20N95W to 19N95W...including within 60 nm of Veracruz in Mexico. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... The METEO FRANCE forecast consists of gale-force winds, to be developing, in parts of the following areas: IRVING, MADEIRA, and AGADIR; and developing in METEOR and in CANARIAS in 15 hours to 18 hours. The outlook, for the 24 hour time period after the initial forecast period, consists of: the persistence of cyclonic near gale or gale in: MADEIRA, CANARIAS, AGADIR, and TARFAYA. Please, refer to the following website, http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1900.061900 4862779.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 06N20W, 4N30W, 03N40W, and 02N46W. Precipitation: scattered strong from 05N to 07N between 40W and 45W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally to isolated strong, from 01N to 09N between 17W and 60W. Scattered moderate to strong is from 03N southward from 04W eastward. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 07N southward from 17W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is in the coastal plains/coastal waters, from the upper Texas Gulf coast, to the NE coast of Mexico near 24N98W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 23N northward between 90W and 97W, from 150 nm to 300 nm offshore. The current cold front, to be exiting the Texas coast this evening, will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula late on Thursday, and then exit the basin on Friday morning. Strong NW winds will prevail behind the front, with a period of gales offshore Veracruz Mexico on Thursday. High pressure will build in the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the front, with moderate winds prevailing through Saturday. The next cold front will push off the Texas coast on Sunday night. Expect strong NW winds across the basin once again on Monday. It is likely for gale-force winds to redevelop offshore Veracruz Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 22N70W, across SE Cuba, to 20N79W. The front becomes stationary at 20N79W, and the front continues southwestward to the SE coastal sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are to the north of the frontal boundary. Isolated moderate rainshowers also cover the rest of the area that is from 15N northward from 80W westward. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across southern sections of Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 13N southward from 70W westward. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers span the rest of the Caribbean Sea, moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow, away from the area of the monsoon trough precipitation. Generally moderate trade winds will prevail in the Caribbean Sea through late week, with nightly pulses of strong winds expected off the Colombia coast. A stationary front, from eastern Cuba to near Tulum in Mexico, will dissipate late tonight. A cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel on Thursday night, and linger in the NW Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds can be expected toward the end of the weekend and into early next week for the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N51W, to 26N60W, 22N70W, across SE Cuba, to 20N79W. The front becomes stationary at 20N79W, and the front continues southwestward to the SE coastal sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to the east and southeast of the front, and within 60 nm to the north and northwest of the front, in the Atlantic Ocean. Surface low pressure and cyclonic wind flow cover the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward from 34W eastward. A 999 mb low pressure center is near 33N23W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 29N northward between 14W and 23W. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 21N48W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 10N northward between the 999 mb low pressure center that is near 33N23W, and the 32N52W 22N70W cold front. The current cold front, from 25N60W to the Turks and Caicos and into eastern Cuba, will drift southward, then stall and weaken through the end of the week. The next cold front will move off the Florida coast on Thursday night, bringing a broad area of strong to near gale-force winds on both sides of it N of 26N into Saturday night. The wind speeds are expected to diminish by Sunday. By Monday, the wind speeds will shift to the southeast, in advance of the next system. $$ mt/sk