000 AXNT20 KNHC 051757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N14W to 08N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ 04N30W to 04N41W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough between the west coast of Africa and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01N to 06N between 03W to 21W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front is in the northern Gulf stretching from the Florida big bend area to 28N90W where it transitions to a stationary front and continues to the South Texas coast. South of the boundary, a 1020 mb high pressure center is located near 27N91W. This high is bringing mainly gentle to moderate winds and dry conditions to much of the basin. As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough extends from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche near 21N97W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough is located in the Bay of Campeche south of 22N between 91W-97W. Seas through the Gulf range from 2 to 4 ft. High pressure over the Gulf will provide return gentle to moderate winds through Wed. A new cold front will come off the Texas coast late Wed with fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it over the western Gulf. The front will extend from the Florida Peninsula to the southern Bay of Campeche Thu, then move SE of the basin Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is located from western Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula causing isolated showers and thunderstorms. NE moderate to fresh winds are located behind the front in the northwestern Caribbean. Weak high pressure centered NE of Puerto Rico is supporting moderate to fresh winds across much of the central and eastern basin. An ASCAT pass from 1416 UTC revealed locally strong winds offshore of Colombia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the southeast and south- central Caribbean, reaching 8 ft off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the eastern half of the basin today with strong winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia tonight. Moderate trades will dominate the central and eastern waters through Fri, then winds will increase to moderate to fresh. A stationary front in the far NW Caribbean will gradually dissipate through tonight. The next front will approach the Yucatan Channel Thu and linger in the NW Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N58W through the SE Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong southwest winds are east of the front and north of 26N with moderate NW winds behind the front .Scattered moderate convection exists along this boundary. Seas near the front are 5-10 ft. For the forecast west of 60W: High pressure will slide east of the area ahead of the cold front, which will move east of the area by Wed. A secondary cold front will move into the area later today, bringing some strong NW winds N of 28N this afternoon into Wed night. Another cold front will move off NE Florida Thu night, bringing strong to near gale force winds on both sides of it through Sat. Farther east, a weakening cold front stretches from 32N28W to 24N48W. Fresh to strong W winds are behind the front north of 25N and east of 45W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front north of 24N and west of 25W. A second weak cold front is located east of the Canary Islands. Scattered moderate convection is located between the two fronts, north of 26N. Seas north of 20N between the two fronts range from 10- 20 ft. $$ MORA