000 AXNT20 KNHC 041711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jan 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 986 mb occluded low centered over the north Atlantic near 37N43W will move to the south of Azores Islands over the next couple of days. There are already winds to gale force to the south of this low, and over the discussion area today and tonight north of 28N between 35W and 45W. Besides the winds, there are very large seas mainly in the form of NW swell accompanying this low, and seas 12 ft or greater will cover much of the area north of 20N and west of 50W today and shifting east of the area through early Wed. Seas as high as 25 ft are possible near 30N40W Mon night. Refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across West Africa and reaches the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues southeast to 03N32W then towards the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the ITCZ and the monsoon trough from 01N-05N between 10W-26W, and north of the ITCZ from 03N-07N between 35W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel where it has now stalled to 21N87W. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 26N92W. This is maintaining light to gentle breezes over the northern Gulf with to 2 to 4 ft seas. Gentle to moderate mainly NE winds persist over the southern Gulf. Sea are 3 to 5 ft in the southern Gulf, with the highest seas in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE out of the basin later today. High pressure will build across the Gulf in the wake of the front providing return gentle to moderate winds through Wed. New cold front will come off the Texas coast late Wed with fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front will extend from Pensacola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by Thu morning and move SE of the basin Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1020 mb high pressure remains centered north of the area near 25N65W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the equatorial trough to the south is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central and southwest Caribbean waters, with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are observed over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the central and southwest Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection has developed along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica in association with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the eastern half of the basin through Tue with strong winds pulsing at night off the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Moderate trades will dominate the central and eastern waters through Fri when winds will increase again to moderate to fresh. A weak cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight, then drift east mainly N of 20N into mid-week. Some locally fresh NE winds are expected behind the front in the Yucatan Channel and Cuba adjacent waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N69W to the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted ahead of the cold front north of 26N, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Surface ridging covers the western Atlantic Ocean to the east of the front, anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure near 25N65W. Light to gentle winds are noted near the high center and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the open waters south of 23N, and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters. For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico will weaken and move east today, ahead of a cold front that stretches from 31N71W to the Florida Keys to W Cuba. Fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the cold front will progress E into Tue as the front exits the region. High pressure surge south into the region Tue and Wed will lead to fresh to strong NW winds N of 27N Tue night through Wed night. The next cold front will come off the NE Florida coast Thu night preceded by fresh to strong to possibly near gale force S and SW winds. East of 60W: See Special Features section above for information on gale conditions today in the Central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N41W to 27N52W to 31N58W. Scattered moderate showers are noted within 120 nm east of the front. Further east, another front extends from 32N20W to 23N29W to 19N41W. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 to 200 nm SE of the front into the Canary Islands. A surface trough ahead of the front extends from 12N45W to 17N34W. Strong W to NW winds are N of 28N between 35W and 50W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas 8 to 11 ft in NW swell persist elsewhere north of 20N and east of 45W. The subtropical ridge axis extends from the high pressure near 27N67W eastward to 45W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas area noted south of the ridge in the tropical waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands. Moderate trade winds are noted across the tropical waters east of 45W, with 5 to 8 ft seas. $$ Torres