000 AXNT20 KNHC 012223 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1004 mb low pressure is centered near 28N43W. Minimal gale force N winds, and seas of 14 to 18 ft, are noted west of the low N of 28N between 48W and 52W. Winds are forecast to diminish to below gale force by this evening, with associated seas subsiding less than 14 ft this evening. The low is expected to move northeastward, shifting north of the area on Saturday. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W, curving to 10N17W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N26W to 05N40W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-12N between 30W-44W, and from 05N011N between 51W and 58W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to 24N90W where it becomes stationary to a 1012 mb low pressure near 20N94W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm ahead of the cold front north of 28N, including over portions of northern Florida. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are noted east of the front, with gentle to moderate winds west of the front. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over the northern Gulf, and 4-7 ft over the southern Gulf. The front will accelerate tonight as high pressure surges into the Gulf, resulting in strong to near gale force winds off the coast of Mexico, south of Tampico. By Mon morning, the front will stretch from the Florida Straits to the northern Yucatan peninsula. Surface ridging will dominate the basin afterwards through the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure of 1030 mb is centered near 31N66W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the equatorial trough is supporting a broad area of fresh strong trades over much of the central and eastern portions of the basin. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are occurring over the western Caribbean. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across most of the open waters over the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas of 5-8 ft are noted over the western Caribbean. Fresh to near gale force easterly winds will prevail across the eastern, central and southwest Caribbean as strong high pressure north of the area remains in place through the weekend. Winds will decrease to mainly moderate to locally fresh early on Mon, except strong winds will pulse nightly off the N coast of Colombia trough Wed night. Otherwise, fresh to strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Sat morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface ridge prevails over the western Atlantic, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure centered south of Bermuda near 31N66W. Fresh to strong winds are noted S of 25N and west of 60W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere west of 60W, except light to gentle anticyclonic winds closer to the surface high. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the open waters S of 25N and west of 60W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail north of 25N. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail over the region through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades to the S of this high will impact areas just north of the Greater Antilles through Sat night, then gradually diminish through Tue. Strong S to SW winds will develop off the N coast of Florida this Sat night, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast Sun. This front will extend from Bermuda eastern adjacent waters through the southern Bahamas by Tue morning and from 25N65W to the Windward Passage Wed. Farther east, a 1004 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 28N43W with strong to gale force N winds to the west of the low. See the Special Features section above for details on the central Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front extends from a triple point associated with this low near 28N33W to 22N40W, with a dissipating cold front continuing to 18N48W. A surface trough extends from 25N31W to 10N50W. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm east and 60 nm west of the trough axis. Strong SE-S winds are near the NE end of the surface trough from 20N- 30N. $$ AL