000 AXNT20 KNHC 011017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is along 32N38W to 20N48W to 18N60W. Behind this front, N of 27N between 47W and 52W, expect gale force N winds to prevail into this evening, with seas of 19 to 26 ft. Elsewhere behind the front, strong NW to N winds and seas of 12 to 18 ft will prevail into tonight. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches from Louisiana into the Bay of Campeche. Behind this front, from about 26N to 30N between 93W and 98W, off the Texas coast, W gales are occurring this morning, along with seas of up to 13 ft. This cold front will weaken today, and gales will diminish late this morning. However, strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected through this afternoon behind the front. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details, as well as the Gale Warnings issued by the National Weather Service Brownsville and Corpus Christi Weather Forecast Offices at weather.gov/bro and weather.gov/crp for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, curving to 10N18W and 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from along 05N/06N between 20W and 46W. Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 34W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information for the Gale Warning for areas offshore the Texas coast this morning. Along of the cold front in the western Gulf, scattered thunderstorms extending northward from 23N to the coast of SE Louisiana. Scattered moderate convection is along occurring in the NE Gulf. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring, with seas of 8 to 10 ft in the NE Gulf. Winds and seas will gradually diminish today as the cold front weakens. By tonight, this front will stretch from the Florida Panhandle to the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front will slow on Saturday, then strengthen and accelerate Sunday as high pressure surges into the Gulf. By late Sunday, the front will stretch from the Florida Peninsula to the Yucatan Channel. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered south of Bermuda is building into the Caribbean, tightening the pressure gradient between it and lower pressure over South America to produce a broad area of strong trades over much of the basin. Additionally, strong southerly winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras northward into the Yucatan Peninsula, flowing toward a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Seas average 8 to 11 ft across the basin, highest off the coast of Colombia and offshore S of Hispaniola. Generally dry conditions prevail also from a few fast moving showers embedded in the trade winds, especially over the eastern basin. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of this trough. Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail across the region as strong high pressure north of the area shifts east through the weekend. Winds will decrease to mainly moderate to fresh early next week, except strong winds will pulse nightly off the N coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning for portions of the Central Atlantic. These gale conditions are being aided by a tight pressure gradient between a 1004 mb low pressure centered near 30N45W and high pressure centered SE of Bermuda near 31N63W. The occluded front associated with the low pressure has moved north of the region, with the related cold front well southeast of the low, as described in the special features section above. Scattered moderate convection is located ahead of the cold front, mainly along a pre-frontal trough that extends from 30N35W to 19N43W. High pressure will remain centered over the eastern area through the weekend. Fresh trades to the S and E of this high will impact areas just north of the Antilles through the weekend, then gradually diminish early next week. Strong SW winds will develop off the N coast of Florida this weekend, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast Sun. This front will stall from Bermuda through the Bahamas and Cuba early next week. $$ KONARIK