000 AXNT20 KNHC 312201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Dec 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1002 mb low is near 32N46W, with associated cold front extending from 31N41W to 22N48W to 21N60W. Gale force winds are noted southwest of the low center where the pressure gradient is tight between a ridge of high pressure and the low. The low will drift southeastward, with gale force winds roughly from 26N- 32N between 46W- 54W through tonight with wave heights of 15 to 25 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force Friday morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1001 mb low pressure is centered near 28.5N96W. A cold front extends from the low to 24N94W and inland near Veracruz, Mexico. Winds to gale force are noted west of the front. The gale force winds are expected to continue within 60 nm of the middle and lower Texas coast through the early evening hours before diminishing overnight. Seas of 7 to 11 ft are expected in this area. Please see the Gale Warning issued by the National Weather Service Brownsville and Corpus Christi Weather Forecast Offices at weatherg.gov/bro and weather.gov/crp for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N15W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 05N21W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 02N-08N between 34W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1001 mb low pressure is centered near 28.5N96W. A cold front extends from the low to 24N94W and inland near Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to gale force W-NW winds are occurring west of the cold front. See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the cold front. East of the cold front, fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted. The front will briefly stall from the Florida panhandle to southern Mexico by Fri night. Reinforcing cold air will then push the front into the eastern Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between 1030 mb high pressure near Bermuda and the equatorial trough is maintaining fresh to strong east winds across most of the Caribbean waters, including the Windward and Mona Passages. Fresh to strong SE winds are over the Yucatan Channel. Wave heights of 8 to 10 ft cover much of the open waters of the central Caribbean, with seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail across the region as strong high pressure north of the area shifts east. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas are expected across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN A 1030 mb high pressure is centered near Bermuda with associated ridging across the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds prevail south of 25N and west of 65W, including through the Bahamas and Florida Straits. Fresh to strong SE winds are north of 25N and west of 75W. Moderate anticyclonic flow is north of 28N between 64W- 75W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail over the open waters southeast of a line from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas to 65W. Seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail elsewhere west of 65W. For the forecast west of 65W, the strong high pressure near Bermuda will shift east-southeast through Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas will prevail across southern waters through Fri night. A cold front will move east of Florida on Sun, and extend from 31N70W across the Bahamas to northern Cuba on Mon afternoon enhancing winds and seas. Farther east, a 1002 mb low is near 32N46W, with associated cold front extending over the area from 31N41W to 22N48W to 21N60W. Gale force winds are over the SW quadrant of the low, with seas in the 20-24 ft range. Please see the Special Features section above for details on gale force winds. Aside from the gales, strong to near gale force N winds, and seas 10 to 20 ft are occurring north of the cold front. A surface trough extends from 23N37W to 14N47W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted within 60 nm east of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Outside of seas noted above, seas of 5-8 ft prevail north of 20N, with 4-7 ft seas prevailing elsewhere. $$ AL