000 AXNT20 KNHC 311742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low is near 33N47W. An associated cold front extends from 32N44W to 29N44W to 25N50W to 23N60W. A 31/1230 UTC ASCAT pass shows gale force NW to N winds west of the low, north of 31N between 47W-51W. The gale force winds are moving south of 31N now, as of about 31/1500 UTC. As the low drifts southeastward, expect gale force winds from 26N-32N between 46W-54W through tonight with wave heights of 15 to 25 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force Friday morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 31/1500 UTC, a 1001 mb low pressure is centered near 28.5N96W, or about 5 nm E of Matagorda Bay Texas. A cold front extends from the low to 25N96W and inland into Mexico just north of Tampico near 23N98W. The latest ASCAT pass from 31/1442 UTC shows gale force W-NW winds from 24N-28N between 96.5W and the coasts of Texas and NE Mexico. Gale force winds are expected to continue within 60 nm of the middle and lower Texas coast through the early evening hours before diminishing overnight. Seas of 7 to 11 ft are expected in this area. Please see the Gale Warning issued by the National Weather Service Brownsville and Corpus Christi Weather Forecast Offices at weatherg.gov/bro and weather.gov/crp for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 10N18W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N36W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 01N-07N between 33W-45W. Scattered showers are from 00N-07N between 14W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 31/1500 UTC, a 1001 mb low pressure is centered near 28.5N96W, or about 5 nm E of Matagorda Bay Texas. A cold front extends from the low to 25N96W and inland into Mexico just north of Tampico near 23N98W. Strong to gale force W-NW winds are occurring west of the cold front. See the special features section above for details on the Gale Warning in western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the cold front from 24N-28.5N. Similar convection is within 90 nm of the low pressure in the eastern semicircle. Similar convection extends northeastward along the coast of Texas to the Louisiana border, and this is associated with a stationary front that extends NE from the low, inland over east Texas and west Louisiana. The low pressure will move NNE and inland over Texas. The cold front will move E across the Gulf of Mexico. Large seas are expected in the western and central Gulf through Fri. Strong to gale force W winds are expected off the Texas coast through tonight. The front will briefly stall from the Florida Panhandle to southern Mexico by Fri night. Then, reinforcing cold air will push it into the eastern Gulf this weekend. Isolated showers are occurring over portions of the eastern Gulf, where fresh to locally strong SE to S winds prevail. These winds are being caused by the gradient between a 1031 mb high near Bermuda and the 1001 mb low along the Texas coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1031 mb high pressure near Bermuda is maintaining strong east winds across most of the northeastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward and Mona Passages. Strong SE winds are over the Yucatan Channel. Fresh wind speeds are elsewhere over the SE Caribbean and portions of the W Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted in the SE Caribbean off the coast of Venezuela. Some showers are also noted in the W Caribbean between the western tip of Cuba and the eastern tip of Honduras. Wave heights of 8 to 10 ft cover much of the open waters of the central Caribbean, with seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail across the region today as strong high pressure north of the area shifts east. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas are expected across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN A 1031 mb high pressure near Bermuda extends ridging across the western Atlantic. Strong trade winds prevail south of 25N and west of 65W, including through the Bahamas and Florida Straits, due to the gradient from the strong high near Bermuda. Fresh to strong SE winds are north of 25N and west of 75W. Moderate anticyclonic flow is north of 28N between 64W-75W. Seas of 10 to 12 ft prevail south of 25N between 55W and the Bahamas. For the forecast west of 65W, the strong high pressure near Bermuda will shift east-southeast through Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas will continue south of 25N through Fri night. A cold front will move east of Florida on Sun, and extend from 31N70W across the Bahamas to northern Cuba on Mon afternoon enhancing winds and seas. Farther east, a Gale Warning is in effect north of 26N between 46W-54W. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the gales, strong to near gale force N winds are occurring north of the cold front from 24N-32N between 46W-59W. Scattered moderate showers are near the low and cold front, north of 28N between 40W-47W. Isolated showers are elsewhere within 60 nm ahead of the cold front. A notable surface trough extends from 21N41W to 13N49W. Upper-level diffluence east of the surface trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection within a few hundred nm east of the trough axis. Strong S winds are noted east of the trough axis from 17N-21N between 38W-41W. Another surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low near 32N31W to 29N24W, with scattered showers south of the trough axis. Offshore Morocco, strong to near gale force N to NE winds are noted from 30N-32N, east of 11.5W. $$ Hagen