000 AXNT20 KNHC 311030 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Dec 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1006 mb low north of the area along a cold front near 36N47W is forecast to move southward to 32N45W this afternoon with a pressure of 1003 mb. A very tight gradient west of this low is expected to cause gale force northwest to north winds north of 30N between 46W-54W today along with wave heights in the range of 13-22 ft. These wave heights will gradually subside through Sat. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 04N32W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 27W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between a 1030 mb high center northeast of the area near 35N66W and broad low pressure over northern Mexico supports fresh to strong southeasterly winds over much of the Gulf. Scattered showers moving northward in the southerly flow are observed over the far western Gulf off the coast of Texas. Wave heights in this area range from 7-10 ft. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds will continue across most of the basin today. A developing low pressure system in Texas will trail a cold front into the NW Gulf waters later today. Large seas associated with the front are expected in the western and central Gulf through Fri. The front will briefly stall from the Florida panhandle to southern Mexico by Fri night, then reinforcing cold air will push it into the eastern Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure north of the area is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the northwestern Caribbean, north of 16N and west of 80W, and over the western half of the central Caribbean north of 17N between 75W-80W. A large area of mainly overcast low and mid-level clouds with scattered showers is over the northwestern Caribbean and over the northern part of the southwestern Caribbean. Seas in those areas are in the range of 6-8 ft as indicated by buoy observations. Moderate NE winds are over the southeastern Caribbean along with wave heights of less than 6 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail across the region today as strong high pressure north of the area shifts east. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas are expected across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN A Gale Warning is in effect for a portion of the north-central Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section above for details. A cold front extends from near 31N48W to 26N65W then transitions to a dissipating cold front to 26N74W. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. Strong winds are noted across the western Atlantic basin from the Greater Antilles to 30N between 60W and Florida due to strong high pressure north of the area associated with the cold front. Seas are 7-12 ft across the entire area east of the Bahamas, north of the Greater Antilles. A weakening 1011 mb low is analyzed near 18N48W, connected to a surface trough that extends eastward to near 17N42W, and southwestward to 13N54W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 16N to 22N between 37W-45W. A 1011 mb low is near 32N31W along an east to west oriented surface trough extending between 22W and 32W. Scattered showers are seen from 30N to 32N between 25W-31W. West of 60W, strong high pressure north of the area will shift east-southeast through Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas will prevail across the southern waters through Fri night. A cold front will move east of Florida on Sun, and extend from 31N70W across the Bahamas to northern Cuba on Mon. $$ Mundell