000 AXNT20 KNHC 310010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Dec 30 2020 Corrected Atlantic Ocean section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low that is well north of the area along a cold front near 40N49W is forecast to move southward to 32N45W by early Thu afternoon with a pressure of 1003 mb. A very tight gradient on the west of this low is expected to usher in gale force northwest to north winds north of 30N between 47W-51W on Thu along with wave heights of in the range of 16-22 ft. These wave heights will gradually subside through Sat. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N16W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N30W and to 03N35W and to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between a 1032 mb high center well north of the area at 37N70W and generally broad low pressure over the western half of the basin and over northern Mexico is allowing for fresh to strong southeasterly winds to exist over much of the Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving northward in the southerly flow are observed over the far western Gulf off the coast of Texas. Wave heights in this area range from 6-9 ft. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds will continue across most of the basin through Thu. A developing low pressure system will trail a cold front that will enter the NW Gulf waters on Thu. Large seas associated with the front are expected in the western and central Gulf on Thu and Fri. The front will stall from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico Mexico by Fri night, then reinforcing cold air will push a cold front southward into the eastern Gulf this weekend CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure north of the area is maintaining fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds over the northwestern Caribbean north of about 16N and west of 80W and over the western half of the central Caribbean north of 17N between 77W- 80W per the latest ASCAT data. A large area of mainly overcast low and mid- level clouds with scattered showers is over the northwestern Caribbean and over the northern part of the southwestern Caribbean. Seas in those areas are in the range of 6-8 ft as indicated by buoy observations. Moderate to gentle winds are over the southeastern Caribbean along with wave heights of less than 5 ft. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds will veer through the next 24-36 hours as strong high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas are expected across most of the eastern and central Caribbean Fri through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected A Gale Warning is in effect for a portion of the north-central Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section above for details. A cold front extends from near 32N54W to 28N64W then transitions to a dissipating cold front to 27N76W. A pre-frontal trough is east of the front extending from near 32N52W to 29N57W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the northern part of this trough. Strong winds are noted across the western Atlantic basin from the Greater Antilles to 30N between 60W and Florida due to strong high pressure building north of the area along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. Seas are 7-10 ft across the entire area east of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles. A weakening 1010 mb low is near 18N51W and is connected to a surface trough that extends eastward to near 20N45W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 15N to 24N and between 37W-46W. A 1011 mb low is near 29N31W along an east to west oriented surface trough extending between 29W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 30N to 32N between 28W-33W. As for the forecast west of 60W, the aforementioned cold front will stall and weaken through tonight. Strong high pressure north of the front will shift east-southeastward through Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds and large wave heights will continue south of 25N through Fri night. The next cold front will move east of Florida on Sat night into Sun. $$ Aguirre