000 AXNT20 KNHC 301753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Dec 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.... A 1007 mb low along a cold front near 41N50W is forecast to move southward to 32N45W by Thu morning. Gale-force NW-N winds are expected on the west side of the low on Thu N of 28N between 45W and 53W. Winds in the area will diminish below gale force by Friday morning. Seas are expected to peak at 18-25 ft within the gale force wind area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N16W, then transitions to the ITCZ to 04N27W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted well south of the monsoon trough from 00N-03N between 04W-15W. Isolated showers are near the ITCZ west of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong southeasterly winds prevail across much of the Gulf of Mexico between a 1034 mb high over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and a 1006 mb low over northern Mexico near 28N102W. Showers are noted in the western Gulf off the coast of Texas and Louisiana. Seas in this area range from 6-9 ft. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds will continue across most of the basin through Thu. The low over northern Mexico will enter the NW Gulf waters on Thu with a trailing cold front. Large seas associated with the front are expected in the western and central Gulf on Thu and Fri. The front will stall from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico Mexico by Fri night. Reinforcing cold air will push a cold front southward into the Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure north of the area is maintaining fresh to locally strong NE winds in the eastern Caribbean north of 13N transitioning to E winds over the NW Caribbean north of 13N and west of 77W, according to the latest ASCAT data. Showers are over portions of the western part of the basin west of 80W with seas ranging from 6-9 ft. Moderate to gentle winds are noted in the southeast Caribbean with seas of less than 5 ft. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds will veer today as strong high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas are expected across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic north of 28N between 45W-53W. Please see the Special Features section above for details. A cold front extends from 32N59W to 28N69W then transitions to a dissipating cold front to 29N81W near Daytona Beach, FL. A prefrontal trough is east of the front extending from 32N55W to 29N60W. Scattered showers are near the trough axis. Strong winds are noted across the western Atlantic basin from the Greater Antilles to 30N between 60W and Florida due to a strong high pressure building north of the area along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. Seas are 7-10 ft across the entire area east of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles. A weakening 1011 mb low is near 18N55W and is connected to a surface trough extending eastward to 19N47W. Scattered moderate convection is near the eastern part of the trough. A second 1011 mb low is near 29N31W along an E-W oriented surface trough extending between 22W and 42W. Scattered showers and fresh winds associated with this trough are north of the low. As for the forecast west of 60W, the cold front extending from 32N59W to Daytona Beach will stall and weaken through tonight. Strong high pressure north of the front will shift east-southeastward through Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas will continue south of 25N through Fri night. The next cold front will move east of Florida on Sat night-Sun. $$ Mora/Hagen