000 AXNT20 KNHC 301031 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Dec 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC GALE.... On Thu morning, a cold front will stretch across the west- central Atlantic from 31N44W to 24N58W. Northwest gale-force winds are expected behind the front N of 29N between 45W and 50W, and will continue through Thu evening. Seas are expected to build to 25 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends just south of the coast of Africa from 05N05E to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01N40W. Isolated showers are noted along and just north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 02N-05N between 13W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1036 mb high near Washington DC. This is maintaining fair weather conditions across the Gulf. Fresh to strong southeasterly flow is noted across most of the western and central Gulf, with fresh east- southeast winds in the eastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida due to a strong pressure gradient. Seas are 4 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds will prevail across most of the basin through Thu. A developing low pressure system will trail a cold front into the western Gulf late tonight through Fri. Large seas associated with the front are expected in the western and central Gulf on Thu. The front will briefly stall from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico Mexico by Fri night, then reinforcing cold air will push a cold front southward into the eastern Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 0200 UTC ASCAT pass revealed fresh to strong NE winds over the NW Caribbean west of 73W, including the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds in the central Caribbean. wave heights are 4 to 8 ft, with highest seas the NW Caribbean, and 6-7 ft in the Yucatan Passage. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds will veer towards the east- northeast today as strong high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas are expected across most of the eastern and central Caribbean Fri through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from south of Bermuda near 31N65W to east of northern Florida near 29N81W. A narrow line of showers are noted along the boundary, with moderate to fresh northerly winds behind it. A weakening 1011 mb low is located ENE of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands near 20N57W. A few showers are southeast of the low, while a more extensive area of convection is noted from 15N-25N between 35W-54W. A 1012 mb low is located in the central Atlantic near 29N32W, with a trough extending along the low from 31N43W to 29N22W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh winds are associated with the low, and seas are estimated at 8 to 10 ft. The cold front east of northern Florida will stall and weaken through tonight. Strong high pressure north of the front will shift east-southeastward through Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas will prevail across southern waters tonight through Fri night. A cold front will move east of Florida Sat night and Sun. $$ Mundell