000 AXNT20 KNHC 300530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Dec 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Liberia near 06N11W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 02N30W, and 01N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 135 nm to the north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ, and everywhere to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ, and from 03N to 08N between 40W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds will prevail across most of the basin through Thursday. A low pressure system will trail a cold front into the western Gulf of Mexico, from Wednesday night through Friday. Large seas, associated with the front, are expected in the western and central sections of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. The front will stall from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico Mexico by Friday night, then reinforcing cold air will push a cold front southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an east-to-west oriented trough extends from the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, to the waters that are between SE Cuba and Jamaica. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that weak cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the waters that are between 80W and Central America from Honduras to Costa Rica. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from 12N northward from Jamaica westward. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 12N southward from 78W westward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low level clouds, that are moving through the area, from 70W eastward, and elsewhere from 70W westward. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds will veer on Wednesday, as strong high pressure to the north of the area shifts eastward. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas are expected across most of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea from Friday through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N68W, to 29N76W, to the northeasternmost corner of Florida. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 30 nm on either side of the cold front. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 19N61W, about 250 nm to the ENE of Puerto Rico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within a 90 nm radius of the 1011 mb low pressure center. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 29N32W. One part of a surface trough extends to 29N21W. Another part of a surface trough extends westward from the 1012 mb low pressure center, to 30N40W, beyond 32N44W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is within 150 nm to the north of the surface trough and the 1012 mb low pressure center. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are covering the area from 17N to 30N between 38W and 60W, in the middle of the cold front and the 29N32W low pressure center and trough. The current cold front, that extends from near Bermuda to northern Florida, will weaken through Wednesday night. Strong high pressure to the north of the front will shift east- southeastward through Friday. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas will prevail across the southern waters from Wednesday night through Friday night. A cold front will move to the east of Florida on Saturday night and Sunday. $$ mt/dm