000 AXNT20 KNHC 292333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Dec 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC GALE.... On Thu morning, a cold front will stretch across the west- central Atlantic from 31N46W to 24N53W. Northwest gale-force winds are expected behind the front N of 30N between 46W and 48W and will continue through Thu evening. Seas are expected to build to 20 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 03N34W to 05N43W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 04N-06N between 16W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is near the ITCZ from 01N-08N between 35W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1036 mb high in the northeast U.S. This is maintaining fair weather conditions across the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong southeasterly flow is noted in the western Gulf off the Texas coast. Fresh to strong easterly winds are seen north of Cuba and in the Straits of Florida due to a strong pressure gradient. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted in the NE and SW portions of the Gulf. Seas are 2-5 ft. Return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong tonight over the northwest Gulf and then over the remainder of the basin ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas by Wed night. The front will reach from Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu, from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Fri, and stall from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat. The next front will move off the coast of Texas early on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough is off the Nicaragua and Costa Rica coast from 15N83W to 10N81W. Isolated showers are noted along the trough. The 1500 UTC ASCAT pass revealed fresh to strong ENE winds over the NW Caribbean west of 75W. Fresh easterly winds are also noted north of Colombia in addition to the Windward Passage. Otherwise, light winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the central Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft in the NW Caribbean off the eastern Honduras coast and 7 ft in the Yucatan Passage. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail over the NW Caribbean due to an intensifying pressure gradient across the area. These conditions will continue as high pressure north of the area continues to intensify. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, strengthening to fresh to strong on Tue night and continue through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches off the NE Florida coast from 31N75W to 29N80W. Showers are noted along the boundary with moderate northerly winds behind it. A 1011 mb low is located NE of Puerto Rico near 21N62W with a trough stretching along the low from 26N67W to 16N60W. Scattered moderate convection is east of the low from 15N-23N between 43W-58W. A 1010 mb low is located in the central Atlantic near 29N32W with a trough extending along the low from 30N39W to 30N26W. Moderate to fresh winds are along the low with seas up to 11 ft. Strong high pressure building across the forecast waters this week will support fresh to strong winds through Sat. A cold front will push south of 30N on Tue night and dissipate near Puerto Rico by Fri night. The next front is forecast to move off the coast of NE Florida early this weekend. $$ AReinhart