346 
AXNT20 KNHC 291756
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Dec 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone 
near 07N12W to 04N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and 
continues to 05N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen along the 
ITCZ from 03N-11N between 35W-45W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep-layer dry air is maintaining generally fair weather 
conditions across the entire Gulf. Surface ridging prevails 
across the basin supporting moderate to fresh return flow. 

Return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong today ahead
of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas
by Wed night. The front will reach from Louisiana to near 
Veracruz, Mexico Thu, from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of 
Campeche Fri, and stall from northern Florida to the Bay of 
Campeche Sat. A secondary cold front will move off the coast of 
Texas early on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1500 UTC ASCAT pass revealed fresh to strong northeasterly 
winds over the NW Caribbean west of 75W. A surface trough 
extends from 15N83W to 10N82W. The ASCAT data also noted a swath
of similar  winds through the Windward Passage and to the waters
between eastern Cuba and Jamaica and also near the coast of 
Colombia from 11N to 12N between 74W-76W. A ship with call sign 
"MWAQ" recently reported east-northeast winds of 25 kt near 
11.5N76W. Isolated showers associated with the trough are over 
portions of the SW part of the basin between the coast of 
Honduras and 80W. Gentle to moderate east winds are over the 
remainder of the basin. Strong high pressure building N of the 
area will continue to support strong winds in the NW Caribbean 
region through Sat. Elsewhere, winds will strengthen to fresh to 
strong speeds on Tue night and through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends southwestward from 32N61W 
to 27N66W. NE winds prevailing behind the front are affecting 
the leeward and windward sides of the Bahamas with seas in this 
region ranging from 6-9 ft. A rapidly weakening 1016 mb low near 
22N62W is along a surface trough that extends from 23N66W to 
just east of the Windward Islands near 17N61W. An area of fresh 
to strong winds is just E of the low to 55W and from 20N-25N. 
Scattered heavy showers associated with the trough are N of 20N 
between 48W and 61W. 

Strong high pressure building across the forecast waters this 
week will support fresh to strong winds through Sat. A cold 
front will push south of 30N on Tue night and dissipate near 
Puerto Rico by Fri night. A secondary front is forecast to move
off the coast of NE Florida on Sat.

$$
CTM/JA