000
AXNT20 KNHC 291039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone 
near 07N12W to 04N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and 
continues to 05N36W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N51W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen along the 
ITCZ from 02N-12N between 32W-45W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather conditions prevail basin-wide as deep layer dry air
is over the region and surface ridging supports moderate to 
locally fresh return flow.

Return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong today ahead 
of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas 
Wed night. The front will reach from Louisiana to near Veracruz, 
Mexico Thu, from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Fri,
and stall from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat. 
Another cold front will move off the coast of Texas early Sat. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong northerly winds are over the NW Caribbean behind 
a dissipating stationary front that extends from the Windward 
Passage to eastern Jamaica. Only isolated showers are over
portions of the SW basin associated with the remnants of the
front. 

The front will dissipate this morning, however strong high 
pressure building N of the area will continue to support strong 
winds in this region through Sat. As as result of the strong high 
pressure, gentle to moderate winds elsewhere will strengthen to 
fresh to strong Tue night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N61W to the 
Windward Passage. Scattered showers associated with the front are
N of 20N between 48W and 63W. NE winds behind the front are
affecting the leeward and windward sides of the Bahamas.
Otherwise, there is a 1010 mb low near 29N31W along with a surface
trough crossing the low center east to west. Scattered heavy
showers are in the vicinity of the low.

Strong high pressure building across the forecast waters this 
week will support fresh to strong winds through Sat. A cold front 
will push south of 30N on Tue night and dissipate near Puerto Rico
Fri night. Another cold front is forecast to move off the coast 
of NE Florida on Sat. 

$$
Ramos