000 AXNT20 KNHC 290436 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Dec 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N30W to 06N40W and to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen along the ITCZ from 03N-11N between 30W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails just north of the Gulf of Mexico, supporting E light to gentle winds over most of the Gulf and SE gentle to moderate return flow over the W Gulf. Seas are less than 8 ft across the Gulf. Deep-layer dry air is maintaining generally fair weather conditions across the region. Return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas Wed night. The front will reach from Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu, from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Fri, and stall from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat. Another cold front will move off the coast of Texas early Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage, near Jamaica, and southwestward to near Costa Rica. South of 17N, the stationary front is dissipating. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front, with NE fresh breeze west of the front and E gentle breeze to the east. Seas are less than 8 ft across the Caribbean. The front will dissipate tonight, however strong high pressure building N of the area will continue to support strong winds in this region through Sat. As as result of the strong high pressure, gentle to moderate winds will strengthen to fresh to strong elsewhere, Tue night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N62W to the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection exists within 120 NM of the front north of 27N, while scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front south of 27N. A weak 1012 mb low is centered at 22N64W with a trough extending southward to 17N63W. Winds west of the front are NE moderate to fresh breeze, while the are SE moderate to fresh breeze east of the front north of 25N. Elsewhere a 1012 mb low is centered at 29N31W with a trough extending eastward to 29N24W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 28N between 25W and 40W. Strong high pressure will build across the W Atlantic this week. This will support fresh to strong winds through the week. A cold front will push south of 30N on Tue night and dissipate near Puerto Rico Fri night. Another cold front is forecast to move off the coast of NE Florida on Sat. $$ Formosa